Game Theory
The Prisoner's Dilemma
The prisoner's dilemma is the most well-known example of game theory. Consider the example of two criminals arrested for a crime. Prosecutors have no hard evidence to convict them. However, to gain a confession, officials remove the prisoners from their solitary cells and question each one in separate chambers. Neither prisoner has the means to communicate with the other. Officials present four deals, often displayed as a 2 x 2 box.
1. If both confess, they will each receive a three-year prison sentence.
2. If Prisoner 1 confesses, but Prisoner 2 does not, Prisoner 1 will get one year and Prisoner 2 will get five years.
3. If Prisoner 2 confesses, but Prisoner 1 does not, Prisoner 1 will get five years, and Prisoner 2 will get one year.
4. If neither confesses, each will serve two years in prison.
The most favorable strategy is to not confess. However, neither is aware of the other's strategy and, without certainty that one will not confess, both will likely confess and receive a three-year prison sentence.
Ultimate Guide to Game Theory: Principles and Applications – Investopedia
By Gregg Wall (9-5-2026)
Game theory is the study of probabilities and decision making … where participants are not isolated but dependent upon one another. Game theory was originally devised in the 1940s by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern. Today, it’s used in business, economics, energy policy, government, legal teams, politics and campaigning, etc. Academics, boardrooms, elites, lawyers, management teams, politicians may employ consulting firms, such as McKinsey, Boston Consulting, and Bain and Company, to run analysis, reports, and conduct live games (especially when the stakes are high). The classic scenario is the prisoners dilemma but there are many other games, war games, and AI and big data are and will remain key features in current and future gaming and analysis. For a more exhaustive explanation of game theory, see the Investopedia article highlighted above, and there are a great many other resources and videos to investigate online.
Assumptions of game theory are that the participants are rational actors that are seeking to maximize their benefit. Of course, humans are highly complex, with varying cultures, educational backgrounds, and morality in praxis, which is where the math and probabilities come in. The game struggles with the all too human elements, emotions, and motives of empathy, betrayal, greed, loyalty, love, integrity, honesty. The game involves two or more players and the game developer, the aforementioned army, corporation, government, or political party, etc. The players are given the scenario or game in advance, the options, and will want to formulate some expectation or anticipate what option or choice the other rational player will choose… as the ultimate outcome is dependent upon the joint decision. From the game developer’s perspective, the aim is to forecast an equilibrium or outcome where no player benefits by changing their decision. During the Cold War, game theory promulgated mutually assured destruction, the idea that America and the Soviet Union, as rational actors, were dependent on each other not to launch a first strike for fear of equally devastating retaliation.
Again, dependency is critical to the game’s outcome in game theory. I would also add understanding who is developing the game and insight into what their goals and motives are… is additionally extremely helpful to the participants, particularly in the real world. The game involves two or more players but the typical set up or scenario is binary, binary decision making, binary outcomes. This is fascinating because it’s no accident that we see binary decisions and dependencies presented to government officials, prospective customers, whether to buy products, corporations setting price for a products, services, or military hardware. For instance, Trump’s love of bilateral trade framing and negotiations is no accident (Trump loves to exploit the asymmetry of the United States and military dependency in Europe). The decision Americans make every other November at the ballot box is generally binary. Through no fault of their own, the majority of citizens are too busy with their daily lives to ever question why we are limited to two choices at election time. We are simply told the system, the US government, doesn’t work with more than two options. The winner takes all nature of American politics only increases the urgency and increases the participation of the players (i.e. the voting public). The ramp up to the US election by the MSM and two parties dives directly into the competitive nature of the races, the embellishment and instigation of fear, the manipulation of culture wars.
So, let’s pull “the game” into the real world.
America’s and Israel’s ongoing war with Iran, and the economic, monetary, and political costs involved… who wins and who loses is classic game theory in action. Trump exploits fear and constantly frames war with Iran, as nuclear containment, which in turn, is used to validate extreme for-profit U.S. military budgets and endless conflict (even though Trump assures us that the Iranian nuclear program was eliminated in 2025). Presentation of a binary outcome… die in a nuclear holocaust or continue fighting… is critical to Trump’s sales pitch to the American people. The American people are presented with a decision that is a foregone conclusion, no critical thinking or decision making is required (because the Trump admin, members of congress, and the Deep State are all over it). Notice, the binary dynamic, the either-or proposition. Notice, the consent is immediately manufactured. Notice, the sales pitch requires the suspension of both disbelief, a considerable amount of ignorance as to the actual facts surrounding the crisis, and for a considerable cross section of the public to be so overwhelmed with their daily fight for survival, so as to not even notice they are being misled (which is why the American public is kept on the edge of precarity, edge of poverty, poorly educated by the MSM, and overwhelmed as both parties and the MSM flood the zone). The American public is led to believe they are the winners in this game with Iran, as we are protected from nuclear Armageddon, while the true winners are the folks that framed or set up the game: Bibi Netanyahu, U.S. politicians who day trade stocks, Wall Street, for-profit military contractors, U.S. oil majors and soaring fuel prices, MSM - as advertising revenue and ratings often climb in wartime, warmongers, and McKinsey, et al. Notice, the American people are truly the losers: another forever war, catastrophic debt and deficits, austerity to pay for the war, another Trump promise broken, a FED who refuses to contain inflationary spending and soaring prices, devalued currency, lower standards of living.
Yet more winners, in the long march of history, are: China, Iran, and Russia who wiped out twenty US military bases in the Middle East; the asymmetrical warfare waged by Iran; the defeat of American military hegemony; another blow struck against the petrodollar; bond vigilantes… those who have longed for the end of the American century and the unilateral world order coming undone.
Again, it’s critical in these binary dynamics not only to understand the game, the choices presented (or the lack thereof via manufactured consent), but more importantly, who is framing the game, who is presenting the choices, and the framer’s motivations… who truly wins and who truly loses. Which brings us to today’s final game, the November elections.
The November elections for the most part fit into the classic game theory model of the prisoner’s dilemma, at least that’s what the framers want us to think. There’ll be whole lot less abuse if everybody remains evenly divided, votes for two parties that are entirely inimical to the public’s interests, two parties that work tirelessly on behalf of the oligarchy and run the public into the ground every two years. While Americans are keenly focused on affordability and the economy, the framers of the game -- the establishment, the ruling corpocracy and oligarchy -- want the public focused myopically on culture wars. American politics and Western politics are riddled with false dichotomies, political duopolies, binary options, decision making, and outcomes: winner take all. Believe it or not, some political campaigns used to educate, talk about meaningful issues like debt, deficits, tax policy, the economy and foreign policy… those days weren’t long ago but today they are long gone. Presently, the MSM and the two major parties beat the fear drum, campaigns are dumbed down, and culture wars proliferate campaign discourse. Which is nauseating because most culture wars boil down to choice, freedom, and individual liberties. As I’ve written before, if you want to be gay, a feminist, speak out on Israel’s genocide, please do so… or conversely, if you don’t want to be gay, want to be a fundamentalist Christian, or be pro-Israel have at it. Liberty is destroyed when a political party wants to impose their belief system, ideals, and values on everyone else.
The political game is presented as follows: both major parties take in massive contributions from billionaires and corporations, often the same contributors will give to both parties to hedge their bets, with the idea of protecting a failed status quo that has seen wage & wealth inequality soar. Both major parties make all kinds of vague promises to Americans to improve the lives of the public on affordability, the economy, and jobs… they promise the moon to get elected. Once in office the promises are ignored, excuses are made, and gridlock and the courts serve the big money contributors. But notice both sides, Dems and GOP, actually are dependent upon one another to keep culture wars alive and perpetuate manufactured differences between the two parties (that are otherwise identical in bending the knee to wealth, corporations, and Wall St.). Lesser evil framing and zero sum framing often amplifies fear in the run up to the election and encourages a surge in voter participation. High participation and turnout lend the political duopoly - as well as the political process and oligarchy that’s buying the candidates and government – credibility. The entire game is designed to keep the players, Dem and GOP voters, at each other’s throats, instead of society uniting to actually solve economic problems and addressing the source of human misery: wholesale corruption, the political parties themselves, the very nature of the dark triad individuals & personalities who are drawn into running for office, the oligarchy, monopolies, endless for-profit wars, lobbyist, and campaign finance rules that are continuously flouted by the uber rich, et al. And let’s not forget 250 years of structural defects within the Constitution, the US government, and the American economy. Those few brave enough to suggest real economic change, such as public healthcare, are castigated and demonized as “communists” and “socialists.” This, even though the biggest socialists in America today are the 1%. In this game theory model (aka Elite Theory) cultural, economic, educational, and political gridlock becomes the ideal (again for the preservation of a failed status quo, greater wealth for the predatory few, and an American public that is viciously attacked from all sides).
In the election game, the ideal is for both parties to attract voters who reflexively vote for the same parties, year after year. From the establishment’s perspective, unthinking, low information, and even lower expectation voters, who are perfectly content with “my team won” are the ideal. Once again, the people who pour millions into these races don’t think along those lines… they expect huge returns and without fail, they receive huge deals, no bid contracts, positions in government or the private sector. The winners: banks, billionaires, foreign governments, monopolies, multinationals, judges and politicians, Wall St, and war contractors. The losers: the American people, families, labor, children, public schools, democracy, freedom, hopes and dreams… wiped out.
Yet more winners are the Global South, that is countries have that been preyed upon by America and West for generations and centuries. For them, an America in man-made crisis and decline is a positive event, a defeated global hegemon brings hope for a better world.
Once you realize the culture wars are not meant to be won, they are meant to be continuous in the service of political duopoly, the Uniparty, and the oligarchy… it naturally follows that political duopoly and culture wars are game theory for the preservation of the ruling class.
To wrap this up, in game theory always be thinking about binaries, dichotomies, framing, decision making, politicians as salespeople pushing ideas and continuously probing & offering sales pitches. Be thinking about economic & political shocks, the flood the zone news flow presented by Western media and politicians. In the game presented to you, who ultimately benefits and who ultimately loses. Who always wins and who always loses. How do you win at game theory? How do you win at another money pit war presented to the public? How do you win every other November?
Answer: Don’t play the game, reject false dichotomies. Think outside the binary, box presented. Don’t support the political duopoly, don’t support the avarice surrounding the political process and the economy. Raise your expectations as to the possibilities and outcomes. Do not support the war effort. Don’t surrender to the unrelenting message of fear. Vote third party or if a reasonable option does not exist, simply don’t vote at all. Don’t lend the establishment your credibility every other November. If enough people do not vote, the system is revealed as a tyranny, the façade, the mask are removed. The dictatorship and lie are exposed. Protest continually, boycott political events for the duopoly, protest forever wars, engage in civil disobedience, labor strikes. Don’t ask, demand more. Sustained civil disobedience - and yes, even political revolution - have successful histories and bring about real change. These strategies work, the elite live in a constant state of fear… afraid of being found out as cheats, hypocrites, liars, pedos, and socialists with their faces forever buried in the government trough. The establishment wouldn’t be spending trillions on data centers, a police & surveillance state, the criminal justice industrial complex, and the prison system if they weren’t deeply worried.
Real resistance must be sustained. Democracy and freedom… and the creation of an economy that functions for all… are not preserved and created by voting for the Uniparty and a killer elite every other November. Expect and demand accountability and justice from the corpocracy, oligarchy, and politicians.
Warning: False binaries over time breed acceptance, apathy, celebrity & politician worship, codependency, despondency, fear & hate, flights into escapism, habitual and problematic substance abuse, etc. This is exactly what the establishment wants. Fight, stay focused, stay alive and fight for a better world. If you can imagine it, a better world, a better economy, and government are entirely possible.
It’s ours for the taking.
Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2026