Saturday, July 19, 2014

History is written by Winners…


History is written by Winners…

#53
When rich speculators prosper
While farmers lose their land;
when government officials spend money
on weapons instead of cures;
when the upper class is extravagant and irresponsible
while the poor have nowhere to turn-
all this is robbery and chaos.
It is not in keeping with the Tao.


By J.M. Hamilton 7-19-14

Random thoughts and musings this long, hot month of July, and in particular, how future generations will  – through the prism of time and futurity - view America, and today’s ruling elite.  My immediate guess is that today’s ruling oligarchs will not be viewed by successive generations favorably, and if our ancestors are looking down, do they shake their heads in shame and wonder?  Let’s examine the following current events to possibly gain a better perspective, and learn how history may be written and play-out.

Former Vice President Dick Cheney & the Failed War in Iraq

Dick Cheney’s advocacy for the war in Iraq is well known.  The history of lies, half-truths and misinformation told by the Bush Administration, to drag this country into the Iraq war, are by now well known.  Trillions of U.S. dollars will ultimately be wasted on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, complete with thousands of U.S. war dead, and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi citizens killed.  The mission in Iraq was poorly defined, and executed from the beginning, and the Bush Administration in a last ditch effort hung its hat on a so-called  “surge” and one General Patreaus; but the “surge” was little more than a payoff to Iraqi Sunni and Baath Party insurgents.   When the payoffs ceased, and U.S. troops finally pulled out, the inevitable happened under a Shiite dictator: The country broke out into civil war.

Now, with Chancellor Cheney’s legacy and war are on line, and his epitaph nearly complete, this warmonger and his neo-conmen continue to clamor for an exercise in futility.  Fortunately, neither Republicans nor Democrats are listening, or buying what Mr. Cheney is selling.  The irony in all this is that Mr. Cheney dodged the Vietnam War, another failed nation building exercise, and served in the Nixon administration, along with one Donald Rumsfeld.  So if anyone should have known what a catastrophe Iraq would become, it was Richard.  Mr. Cheney evaded Vietnam with five draft deferments and was quoted by the W. Post as stating: “I had other priorities in the 60s than military service.”  Spoken like a true armchair quarterback, and an elitist.  I wonder if he’d feel differently if his two daughters were on the front line?

Probably not.

The Iraq war however, was never about protecting America or Americans, or spreading democracy.  Historians will be quick to note that Iraq sits on one of the largest deposits of proven oil reserves in the world, and Mr. Cheney, as the former CEO of Halliburton and Kellogg, Brown and Root (oil field and defense contractors) wanted at those reserves, and wanted those DOD contracts.  As this blog has pointed out on more than several occasions, America goes to war for oil, and to protect multinational and foreign sovereign interests.  Essentially, the nation’s fighting force, manned by the nation’s poor in today’s all volunteer military, were being sacrificed on the altar of war for multinational/KBR profits, to make the Sovereigns and Monarchs wealthier, and to protect global oligarchs’ assets.  Remember, Iraq had absolutely nothing to do with 9-11.  Fortunately, the U.S. has wised up to Mr. Cheney, and many of us wonder if he’d like to give up the heart he received, courtesy of the U.S. taxpayer he has so little regard for.  Republicans espouse fiscal conservatism and welfare cuts for those in need, but when it comes the DOD, the NSA, and warfare, the sky is the limit, even at the risk of running the nation into the ground, fiscally.

President Obama, in direct contrast to Mr. Cheney, has done everything in his power to keep this nation out of armed conflict, and has won geo-political conflicts time and time again, w/out the use of standing armies or nation building exercises.   Just like another President Mr. Cheney failed to learn from, named Ronald Reagan, who won the cold war w/out firing a shot.

The Chamber of Commerce and Exxon’s Love Affair with Dictator Putin – “Scary” Indeed

Like many of us, I too, work for corporate America, and I am proud of the job I am privileged to hold and the company I work for.  But too many corporations today, take a very “quarterly statement” view of the world.   Multinationals want all the privileges of a sovereign state, but none of the social responsibility.  Too many corporations and billionaires want the rights of the individual and to dictate U.S. domestic and foreign policy, like the monarchs of old, and they absolutely abhor attempts to hold them responsible for criminal conduct.  

Mega-corporations are unwilling to run for public office, at least yet. 
President Carlyle Group?   Maybe someday, but for now, better to manipulate and pay-off (make campaign contributions) Congress from the shadows, and engage in regulatory capture.

The arrogance and unmitigated greed of the Chamber of Commerce was on full display recently, when the Chamber lobbied Congress to back off on pursuing sanctions against Dictator Putin, one of the darkest despots in the world today.  The Chamber represents the interest of many U.S. multinationals, who are presently working in the former Soviet Union, under the regime of a communist thug and Ex-KGB agent (whose respect for human rights and the rule of law are non-existent).  Gee, did it ever occur to Exxon that prudent political risk-management might give them pause before leaping into Mother Russia?  And did Mr. Rex Tillerson, along with the Chamber, really think he could dictate U.S. foreign policy, and help finance the Russian military? 

Why not.  Multinationals have been dictating policy to the U.S. government for years, particularly Republican administrations, but Demos too.  Far be it for Exxon and the Chamber to lobby Dictator Putin, directly, and demand that he abandon Crimea, the Ukraine, and respect human rights.  Instead the Chamber followed and lobbied via the path of least resistance, our crony – gerrymandered – U.S. congress (essentially doing Putin's bidding).  That the policy dictated by Exxon and the Chamber is often myopic, greed-centric, and all too often inimical to the interests of the vast majority of Americans, let alone citizens of the world….. well, that’s business as usual.  The Chamber and Exxon are so used to having their every word executed upon by our government officials, as they work from the periphery, the shadows and K Street.  Exxon also, courtesy of Mr. Cheney, made a big investment in Iraq…. Only to, recently, bail and flee.  How long before multinationals, and the Chamber, flee the former U.S.S.R…. just like British Petroleum did sometime ago?

Don't forget Exxon, along with Big Oil, receives billions in tax subsidies... that's billions that you, Dear Taxpayer, pay for out of your own pockets. 

And what will the historians say about the integrity and responsibility of the Chamber's and Exxon's deal with, and advocacy for, the Devil?


Nine Monarchs

The founding fathers did a terrific job on many aspects of the constitution.  The whole checks and balances thing, to this day, plays out in many instances.  Perhaps too much so - given Congress’ failure to act, in the hopes of showing up a President that they absolutely loathe.  What were the founders possibly thinking, however, when they created the judicial branch?  If there ever was an ultra-elitist and most undemocratic body in our government, than this is it, SCOTUS.  These nine justices can sit on this court for generations, pull “stuff” out of the air, contradict their own rulings interminably, revise their own rulings behind the scenes and after the fact (w/out notice to the American people, let alone legal scholars); and continually, have found new ways to hold back society, women, minorities and the human race. 

They are all liars… oh sorry, meant to say lawyers.  If there was ever a profession that needed to be placed upon a leash, it is the legal profession.  Shakespeare was quoted in Henry VI , “The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers.”  A thought that must have crossed many an American’s mind, whom ever had to sit in a U.S. court of law.  (That’s not say there aren’t quality legal professionals out there with morals and scruples; I’ve met several over the years.) The founding fathers were fleeing persecution, tyranny, and King George’s autocracy… why on earth, give SCOTUS unlimited power?  Or is it simply a matter of this court growing more powerful over the span of time, and granting themselves powers un-enumerated by the constitution?  Maybe our founders never anticipated the life expectancy of today’s SCOTUS members, vis a vis 1787’s life expectancy.

This most recent coven (The Roberts Court) has done more damage to the rights of man, and expanded exponentially the rights of corporations and wealthy individuals to usurp the democratic process, then any court heretofore.  The hubris and arrogance surrounding five of these nine monarchs is astounding.  If there was ever a body in need of term limits, this is it; if there ever was a crime perpetrated by our founding fathers against the American people, than this is the place.  As it stands today, future historians might suggest SCOTUS has become a tool of the plutocracy.  Citizens United, McCuthcheon…. These SCOTUS decisions spell out the death of democracy, and an accelerated race to destroy the middle-class.

By way of example, Justice Scalia was appointed by Ronald Reagan nearly thirty years ago to the most powerful court on the planet, and is quite possibly the most reactionary politician, within the federal government today.  How grounded is this man, or sane for that matter – just two years shy of being an octogenarian, and what possibly could this man know about the reality 99% of Americans face daily?  (The CIA fact book estimates the median age of Americans at 37.6 years of age.  This means half of all Americans are at least forty years, or more, younger than Justice Scalia.  Chew on your olive for moment and ponder that fact, as you sip on your extra dry martini this summer weekend.)  And yet, Justice Scalia, when his vote is tied to four other justices, has the power to usurp democratically elected congressional and executive branches, purely on a whim, and all too often in favor of the true puppet masters, the oligarchs.

A Destroyer of the Economy and Opportunity: Private Equity Equals Bankruptcy!

Capitalism's claim to fame is that it creates jobs, opportunity, and most effectively and efficiently produces goods and services (and I still believe that); and yet, there is a class of business in our society today that makes a killing for an elite few by eliminating jobs, crushing opportunity, and after maxing out a company's credit line - all too often runs said company into bankruptcy.  I write of course, of private equity.  The fact that many companies, who are owned by private equity firms, ultimately, end up in bankruptcy court is not in dispute. 

The NY Times reported that 50% of the bankruptcies reported in 2008 were either presently owned by private equity (PE) firms, or previously owned by PE firms.  No greater icon of capitalism than Warren Buffett was recently quoted as stating that he rued the day he ever heard of TXU (aka Energy Future Holdings), which is one of the largest PE bankruptcies, if not the largest, reported to date.


PE consistently burns investors, businesses, employees, and on a macro level is highly deleterious to the tax base and the overall economy.  And yet, because these pirates are hugely wealthy, they are all too often celebrated.  That there business is successfully based upon unseemly amounts of debt, and leveraging a rigged tax code, is beside the point.

What will future generations say about a business model that destroys opportunity, jobs, and is the primary catalyst for globalization and M&A activity, that all too often leads to industries dominated by monopolies and cartels?  Cerberus, Apollo, Carlyle Group, KKR, Blackstone.... These folks do not liberate companies, they destroy them.

The fact that one of these fat cats can buy up a copy of the Magna Carta, or an original copy of the Declaration of Independence, and place it on display for the public view.... Does not for one second atone for the economic carnage caused by private equity, the lives destroyed, and the careers cut short.  Not to mention PE’s ruinous results for our Federal government, which is left holding the bag with a diminished tax base and higher relief payments for displaced workers.  

Private Equity is nothing to emulate and does not even qualify as capitalism, it is something to be shut down and abolished.  Interestingly enough, some GOP members have not learned from Mr. Romney's example, and now it appears that Mr. Jeb Bush is involved in the same business practices.

Which raises the question, just how serious is Mr. Bush about a presidential candidacy, or is his interest in seeking the republican nomination more about hiking up his speaking fees?


Tax Cheats,  A-Hoy!

"Double Irish, Dutch Sandwich, Check the Box," and private equity's personal favorite, "Carried Interest," these are all the names of tax dodges employed by wealthy Americans, corporations, and multinationals to greatly reduce their tax burden, if not eliminate it altogether.  Which means you, Dear 99%, get to pay a significantly higher tax rate so as to pay for the shortfall that occurs when the rich don't pay their equitable share.  The wealthy in turn re-invest the tax dollars they should have paid in to ventures, such as: undermining democracy (i.e. buying off - sorry, meant to say making "campaign contributions" to -  politicians for political support), lobbying for tax holidays and maintaining and expanding additional tax loopholes, and M&A activity - which as described above kills jobs, opportunity, and causes wages to stagnate.

All of this I described in a piece a little over a year ago, entitled:  Your Tax Dollars at Work.

Now I would argue that not paying taxes - leaving your fellow Americans left to pay higher taxes on your tax-dodging behalf - is not only quintessentially Un-American, but I think we can argue that it is near treasonous (as it leaves our federal government in a perilous fiscal state).  Many of these corporations employing these dodges earn millions, if not billions,directly from government contracts: G.E., Booz Allen owned by Carlyle Group, assorted defense contractors, and medical care providers.  And members of Big Oil, who enjoy tax subsidies - despite making billions - are probably one of the primary beneficiaries of our extravagant DOD and attempts to police the world. And then there's Big Pharma, who not only charges full price for their medicine in America (perhaps the only Western Democracy where this is allowed, which is a huge expense to the nation), but also deploys the latest tax loophole du jour, called "Inversion."

Inversion is where American companies (who enjoy: the rule of law in America; America's defense forces affording unprecedented protection; her crony political system - the best money can buy; and her captured courts, regulatory system and tax code) buy a foreign company, so that they can transfer their headquarters outside U.S. borders to avoid paying U.S. taxes altogether.

Leaving you, Dear Fellow Americans, left holding the bag, with higher tax payments, higher national debt, and decreased government services.  Here's a number to put on these tax cheats, the cumulative price tag on all this legalized corporate tax fraud is estimated by our own government to be $12 trillion over the next decade.

The only thing more Un-American than the companies who leave our shores to duck out on their tax responsibility, are the politicians in Congress, who voted these loopholes into place, and who are “paid” contributions not to reform our perfidious tax code.

The solution for inversion is easy.  If a company leaves America to dodge taxes… they should not be allowed to operate in the market that controls 25% of world GDP, the United States.  Inversion should equal a ban on operating within American markets.  These same companies who leave, should also have their patents and licenses revoked, and their U.S. assets sold to the highest bidder company, that operates in America, pays taxes in America, and hires Americans.  This same solution could be applied to American companies that want to offshore their labor.

In brief, the political Left doesn't have to make the case for wealth confiscation.  Companies who leave U.S. shores to dodge paying taxes, are making the case for wealth confiscation, themselves. 


Unfortunately, I could continue further writing about the moral decline of some American corporations, but I'm running out of time: A car company, bailed out by the American taxpayer, who makes a deadly product, and then ignores the problem…. And on, and on, and on!

So let’s go back now, to the primary premise of this piece, and based upon the evidence above, try and learn how future generations (e.g. our children and grand children) might view us?    

Well, not very well, unfortunately. 

GOP presidential candidate Romney and SCOTUS believe corporations are people.  Granted not all corporations are the same, and “no,” not all corporations are evil.  Like ordinary citizens, the picture on corporations is mixed.  There are many well meaning companies and businesses out there, who want nothing more than to provide a quality/safe product or service, and make a reasonable profit.  And there are many who do just that.  Business in America is as American as apple pie.  

However, perhaps far too many businesses, corporations, and multinationals are run by management teams and/or board of directors that would appear to have sociopathic tendencies, or are perhaps anti-social, or equally treacherous, maybe are Anti-American.  Before affording an analogy tied into the examples above as proof, let’s define “sociopath,” shall we? 

The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM IV-TR) is another widely used tool for the diagnosis and it defines sociopath traits as:

A) Pervasive pattern of disregard for and violation of the rights of others occurring since age 15 years, as indicated by three or more of the following:

1.    Failure to conform to social norms with respect to lawful behaviors as indicated by repeatedly performing acts that are grounds for arrest
2.    Deception, as indicated by repeatedly lying, use of aliases, or conning others for personal profit or pleasure
3.    Impulsiveness or failure to plan ahead
4.    Irritability and aggressiveness, as indicated by repeated physical fights or assaults
5.    Reckless disregard for safety of self or others
6.    Consistent irresponsibility, as indicated by repeated failure to sustain consistent work behavior or honor financial obligations
7.    Lack of remorse as indicated by being indifferent to or rationalizing having hurt, mistreated, or stolen from another

B) The individual is at least age 18 years.

C) There is evidence of conduct disorder with onset before age 15 years.

D) The occurrence of antisocial behavior is not exclusively during the course of schizophrenia or a manic episode.
 

Now, if corporations are people, and an ordinary American was to be a proponent of say: unlimited warfare (quite possibly for personal gain), like I don’t know, former Halliburton CEO, Mr. Dick Cheney; and this same “American” person was to back (provide U.S. technological support and financial assistance to) one of the most notorious dictators on the planet, named Putin ---- like the Chamber of Commerce and Exxon; and this American person destroyed businesses, jobs and economic opportunity by maxing out corporate credit lines, and sending acquired companies, repeatedly, into bankruptcy, as Private Equity does everyday; and this “American”/possible Sociopath/possible Psychopath refused to pay taxes, but reaped all the rewards of their citizenship (and in fact reaped significant wealth from their relations with government officials, SCOTUS, and a rigged tax code)…. Like various U.S. companies deploying tax inversions and tax dodges from a loophole laden tax code…… Well, we’d probably throw this individual in jail for life?   

In fact, where I came from, Texas, some people might just dispense with the jail time altogether, and find themselves a rope.  (Personally, I'm not a fan of frontier justice.  The worst punishment is to let someone rot in a corporate run U.S. prison, and deal with the U.S. courts.  Welcome to the 10th ring of hell.)

Or maybe, Americans would make this person Vice President of the United States.

Yet, Mr. Romney assures us, as does SCOTUS, that corporations are people, too.  Apparently, some corporations can get away with unlimited warfare, advocate bombings for no sane or rational reason (or based upon a pack of lies), stealing national resources from sovereign peoples, holding down women and minorities, cheating on taxes, and running businesses into the ground, and crushing the economy for personal gain (while thumbing their nose at America and planting their freak-flag on foreign soil).

That my dear friends, is how our children and grandchildren are likely to view us, after this country has been thoroughly raped, sacked, and looted… and our kids and grand-kids are left with nothing, but a mountain of federal debt.  For not only are We The People the victims of these various nefarious acts, but we are also – in a democratic society – the enablers.

Many of us, my GOP friends in particular, love to blame the government for society's ills and problems, but perhaps it's time to take a very hard look at the enterprises and mega-wealthy individuals, who are the true puppet masters (and pull the strings on a congress - with a single digit approval rating, and SCOTUS).

They say that history is written by winners.  Well, if this is the future we are bequeathing our children, than I’m afraid we are all going to be viewed as losers, especially many of the wealthiest among us.

The wealthy and their minions will say this piece smacks of class warfare, and we can't have that; but no greater authority on the matter than Mr. Warren Buffett has said that the rich have been practicing class warfare on the 99% for decades.  Guess who won in the short run?

P.S.  


Here’s the Top Eight Reasons, we know we are in the middle of yet another Bubble caused by the Federal Reserve and Central Banksters, globally:

1)    Individual investors are flooding back into the stock market, at the market’s peak (a sure sign that the "pros" are about to take their winnings and leave).
2)    Private Equity executives talk about their returns and their market conditions, as being “biblical.”
3)    Junk debt is at record low interest rates, and bond offerings often afford no protective covenants or conditions.
4)    Business fundamentals and the economy are marginal at best, but the stock market continues to soar to record heights.
6)    There’s so much free money lying around, that the only thing CEOs can think of to do with it, are stock buybacks (again at a market peak?).
7)    Insiders are selling stock, not purchasing it. 

And the top reason we know we are in another Bubble:
8)    The Federal Reserve and Central Banksters deny that we are in a Bubble.  

They are always, allegedly, the last to know.  Fear not, however, there’ll be plenty of time to bail.  The market won’t falter until after the 2014 mid-term elections.

Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2014

Sunday, July 13, 2014

The Sovereign Debt Crisis is Sucking...



 
Portugal reminded us yet again this week that as much as Central Banksters try to paper over the 2008 crisis with a fire hose of liquidity and record low interest rates, w/out addressing the real problems (Insolvent banks, too big to fail banks, and crony relations between governments and the banking sector), the crisis remains and Western economies stagnate…. Just as predicted by J.M.H. (7-13-14)



The Sovereign Debt Crisis is Sucking the Wind out of the Global Economy…. The “Can” Just Got Punted Down the Road!

By J.M. Hamilton  5-10-2010

Wow, what a difference a weekend makes.  Do you ever notice how central banks do their “wild and craziest” maneuvers on the weekends: whether it’s letting Lehman Bros slide into oblivion, or deciding to bailout AIG (or was that a weekday?), or in the case of Europe, bailing out PIIGS!   Looking into the future when it comes to bailing out the world’s fiat currency, one might imagine that happening on the weekend, too.

One of the words we heard thrown around Europe’s second bailout of the banks is “sterilization” of the expansion of money supply.   Simply put, “sterilization” means as money is pumped into the European central banks, if I have this correct, the banks will give up their toxic PIIGS debt in exchange for European or Euro debt, so that money supply is not increased.  

What a relief!

Either way you look at it folks, the Euro just got a little bit weaker with one trillion Euros magically appearing from no where, and toxic assets being moved on to yet another central bank’s balance sheet.

Why this special emphasis, by our European brethren, on money supply “sterilization?”

Well, because the Europeans remember very well (unlike some Americans) the Weimar Republic and how hyper inflation led to the rise of a paper hanger/would-be artist, named Adolph Hitler, and the global calamity called World War II.  Europeans remember, all too well, particularly Germans, the whirring of the printing presses and currency created out of thin air, and the resulting madness.   And the Germans just to show the world that they remember their history voted resoundingly against Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democrats…  and as of Sunday, her party is no longer holding down the upper house of German Parliament, due to Merkel’s real or perceived support of the bailout that transpired this weekend.

Sure, this time, the world is a little more sophisticated The major banks  – which are beholding to the politicians for their bailouts – have agreed, in their Japanese-Zombie state, to leverage up the free money they receive from their respective governments, and “hoover-up” the ever-expanding national debt.  Heh, why not… after all, taxpayer funded rates of return trump the vagaries of lending to the private sector any day.  

Right?

Except there’s one problem:  The crowding out effect is coming to fruition, as government borrowing takes precedence over providing credit to businesses in the private sector, which has a stifling effect on jobs creation and tax revenue.

What we are in right now, citizens of the world, is a vicious economic cycle, perhaps globally – certainly in the U.S. and Europe, where governments, who depend upon the private sector for jobs creation and a tax base, are literally destroying private sector opportunity – through the crowding out effect in the credit markets.  Check out the Shadow Banking web site, and the contraction of M3 or the money supply (http://www.shadowstats.com/charts/monetary-base-money-supply).

The cycle continues in that governments in turn have to borrow higher and higher amounts of money to provide benefits for the ever growing ranks of the unemployed, which leads to even greater private sector crowding out within the credit markets.  If we review our history further, the last country to crowd out the private sector, totally, this time at the barrel of a gun, was the former U.S.S.R.   And many of us remember how that story ended.

The Wall Street Banks, and their European Peers, were bailed out in 2008…. For making wild bets on speculative real estate, and real estate CDOs and derivative products.  But now we can already see that European banks are being bailed out, less than two years later, for holding junk sovereign debt.   The worry of the major powers in Europe has not been avoided by this weekend’s events, that a chain of sovereign dominoes would fall (as the stronger nations attempted to bailout their weaker sister states); but rather, the thesis has been confirmed.

And now, the PIIGs must anti-up with politically unpopular social benefit reductions, and tax increases – all contractionary economic policies – or dissolve in chaos, as governments are overrun and are overturned by their upset citizens.  We saw hints of social unrest in Greece just last week.  More than likely, those same citizens will be hitting the streets again, very soon.  Either that, or the Greek government will not enact the spending and tax reforms necessary, so that they will be back at the E.U., yet again, looking for additional bailouts.

Moral hazard affirmed once again… this time, among sovereigns and the banks that lend to them.

Unfortunately, few politicians have the political will to address these issues There’s always an excuse to kick the can down the road a little further:  say political expediency, an election around the corner, an economy that isn’t quite back on its feet, or wars to be fought and wars to be won.

The cold hard reality however, is that when a currency is weakened by over expansion, or inflation, subsequent bailouts become increasingly more expensive, and, possibly, more frequent, until such time as the currency is no longer viewed as holding any value.  World banks steeped in the U.S. dollar and euro holdings, in the long run, may be no better off than they were going into this weekend holding PIIGS’ debt.

Our banks and governments ability to handle the next economic catastrophe, or geo-political crisis, is now in question.  The hope is that these successive bailouts will give the economy time to heal, and that we can grow our way out of our problems, or take on contractionary fiscal policies – during better economic times; but increasingly, one wonders if the bank bailouts are just a means of kicking the “can” just a little further down the road, and only serving to aggravate the inevitable day of reckoning?

 Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2014