America’s Third Rail…

America’s Third Rail…

The benefits derived from the dollar being the world’s main reserve currency constitute the “exorbitant privilege” about which France’s then-finance minister, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, complained in the 1960s.

The greenback’s worldwide popularity enables the US to project power around the globe – to maintain military bases and facilities in over 100 countries, to keep naval battle groups afloat from the Mediterranean to the Pacific…

-  Trumping the Dollar, by Benjamin Cohen, @Project Syndicate

By J.M. Hamilton (5-28-2016)

Per Bloomberg, the World’s debt to GDP ratio (including public, private sector, and non-financial - corporate debt) has grown to an astronomical 240%; and America’s corporate debt to cash on hand ratio, in 2015, increased 50%.  Looks like global elites are binging on the free money pumped out by the world’s central banks…. Completely the opposite of what the Federal Reserve told us back in ’08.  That is to say, the Fed’s extraordinary efforts were to give everyone an opportunity to right size their balance sheets.  Instead, the American government and the corporate elite have loaded up on even more debt.  (Globally, zombie banks and debt burdened state owned - and commercial - enterprises are propped up by central banks’ printing presses, a la China, Europe, and Japan.)

But central bank largess does not extend to the 99%... for everyone else, there’s austerity.  If Central Bank largess actually filtered down to the people, that might ignite inflation; and so Wall Street banks act as hedge funds to jack up the stock market (all business fundamentals to the contrary), and finance job killing M&A.  Actual old-fashioned bank lending for ordinary Americans (?)… too much risk involved.  The Fed’s money creation must be sterilized, that is kept out of the hands of the American people to keep nascent inflation in check. Hence, parsimonious wages paid for an ever-shrinking pool of jobs, as the Monopoly Economy takes hold.  The net result of which is ever increasing wage and wealth inequality, all aided and abetted by centrals banks.

Meanwhile, the Japanese PM, Shinzo Abe, at the G-7 summit last week, rather cryptically warned his peers of a coming financial calamity (aka a Lehman event).  But the other G-7 leaders weren’t having it, all facts about the world’s growing addiction to the debt driven global economy notwithstanding. 

Who knew the Japanese PM was such a buzz-kill?  Shut up, Abe… just shut up already, the other G-7 leaders seemed to be thinking.  Poor Abe was sent to the time out chair, and his dire warning was excluded from the G-7 joint communiqué.

For students of economics and politics, and keen watchers of central banks, it’s interesting how the dialogue on debt always unfolds.  Notice here, the key dichotomy among the global political elite and their owners - the billionaire class - in all matters concerning debt.

Debt is good under certain scenarios:  Government debt, and debt monetization, to extend America’s global empire, protect world trade, finance frivolous MIC spending, and wars w/out end receive rave reviews from the Washington establishment.  Debt to finance tax cuts for the wealthy, and offshore tax havens…. Wonderful, the billionaire class loves it.  Debt for Wall Street bank bailouts, ahem… good.  Corporate debt to finance job killing M&A and financial engineering (aka stock buybacks) … if it makes the stock market soar, have at it!  Debt to finance privatized prisons and mass incarceration, and the new Jim Crow…. The elite are highly accepting of it.  There’s money to be made in jailing millions of people, and their subsequent disenfranchisement keeps democracy in check.

Debt, per the elite, is bad under alternative scenarios:  Whenever debt it mentioned to finance infrastructure improvements, job creation for the 99%, expanding the safety net, public financing of college education, or much needed fiscal stimulus to jump start the economy, the elite and their minions - the GOP and more than a few Dems – say, “pass.”  

 No mas!

In short, debt financing for the elite:  good, particularly when U.S. taxpayers are left holding the bag (that’s because the elite often pay no taxes).  Debt financing for programs favoring the 99%:  pound sand!  In fact, it’s America’s ever spiraling national debt that is repeatedly used as an excuse to shut down all conversation about fiscal stimulus or using government expenditures to assist those most in need, the 99%.  The same arguments extend across the pond to Europe, where the German owned and operated E.U. continues to mandate that Southern periphery nations adopt, repeatedly, nasty doses of fiscal austerity.   (Austerity that is strangling the economies and citizens of these Southern European nations.)  All the better to bailout German and E.U. banks, who recklessly lent money to these nations in the first place.

Enter one, Mr. Donald Trump.   Mr. Trump always keeps it entertaining, and as a novice to the political world, and a bit of an expert on bankruptcy, recently shared some insights into America’s national debt.  Fortunately, Mr. Trump was not told in advance that professional American politicians don’t venture where angels and demons fear to tread, that is in discussing on the campaign trail American politics’ third rail, our colossal corporate and national debt.  Mr. Trump knows that debt can weigh down a troubled commercial enterprise, and even nation states.  Possibly w/ the best of intentions, he suggested that America renegotiate some of it long-term debt. 

We can see where The Donald was going w/ this.  If America is freed up of some, or part, of its national debt, the political establishment’s objections to fiscal stimulus begin to vanish.  Mr. Trump – an admitted crony capitalist (and presumably a closet Keynesian) - knows that in order to make America great again, he’s going to need government spending - and government debt - to employ Americans (particularly with the pending world economic calamity Mr. Abe warned us about at last week’s G-7).

Predictably, the outcry over Mr. Trump’s proposal - from the academic, economic, and political establishment - was deafening.  Mr. Trump was deemed a neophyte, and a threat to America’s role as a world leader.  If America renegotiated our debt, how would America’s elite enjoy the exorbitant privilege that comes with holding the world’s fiat currency?  Our 800 to 900 military bases around the globe, war w/out end, tax breaks for the wealthy, and general looting of the federal government by the elite…. Might be placed in jeopardy.  How dare Mr. Trump even suggest such a thing.  Our heavily mortgaged global empire might crumble.

But Mr. Trump, who your humble blogger disagrees with on many things, maybe onto something.   America must address its third political rail, and so must world leaders.  The global economy is stalling under its crushing debt burden.  (And the elite & academics are delusional if they think this debt will ever be paid back; and if the debt is paid back, it will be on the backs of the poor and the shortened life spans of same.)  Moreover, global central banks have suppressed interest rates, often with negative yields, to mitigate debt service payments for nation states and corporations leveraged to the hilt.  One can see this spiraling on for decades or more - see Japan and its lost decade(s).  Seems that Mr. Abe is very much in the know, as is Mr. Trump, who’s gone through several bankruptcies himself.

What to do?  What to do?  And as important, how to protect America’s perks associated with possessing the world’s fiat currency?

Well, if we have learned nothing in the last eight years, it is this:  If all the central banks are engaged in a race to the bottom, simultaneously, through all manner of financial chicanery or fraud, then it’s really a zero sum game.  Isn’t it?  In other words, what we’ve learned is - despite debt monetization, smoking up the central bank printing presses, expanded central bank balance sheets, QE uber alles, and suppressed interest rates - as long as all central banks are doing it, the U.S. dollar, seemingly, suffers no harm.  America’s dollar, in fact, remains preeminent, despite the abuse heaped upon it by the Federal Reserve.  It’s interesting to note that despite the BOJ adopting negative yields, the Japanese Yen, counter intuitively and against all economic understanding, actually grew stronger recently.  Alas, financiers and the carry trade could give a rat’s ass about current economic dogma.



 
Photographer Steven Siegel:
A daredevil kid poses on the tracks kneeling above the infamous third rail for Siegel at Whitlock Ave subway station, The Daily Mail.

So how do we get rid of this debt hangover, and kick start federal spending again and boost aggregate demand, preferably for the 99%?  Global central banks with expanded bank balance sheets, should – multilaterally – agree to take a debt hair cut on their respective government bond portfolios.  That is to say, in order to get rid of this massive debt hangover, globally, central banks – in a coordinated fashion - must all agree to write down some of their massive holdings of government bonds.  In this manner, the debt disappears, and governments are free to spend again.  If all central banks do it, incrementally, no single currency or country is advantaged, or disadvantaged, over its peers.  Hell, create a SPV, and dump the bad debt there.  It’s monopoly money anyway, w/ faith based value.  If all currencies/central banks are engaged in the same practice, it’s not like the citizens of the world are going to migrate to an alternative currency.

In short, America’s exorbitant privilege is protected, if all central banks are doing it.  Start small, coordinate, and go from there.

Japan, China, European southern periphery nations, and the U.S…. all could use a considerable write down.  And the nations that don’t need a write down, such as Russia and its ruble, are hardly in a position to become the world’s fiat currency.  JMH doesn’t give Mr. Trump much credit, but for jumping on America’s third rail… kudos and accolades! 

Both Democratic Candidates should be entering into this discussion, as well.  It’s probably the key issue of our times, and it took a political outsider to bring it up.  No wonder Americans are fed up with the establishment, career politicians, and biz as usual w/in Washington environs.  Apparently, group think abounds among the Ivy grads, who run our country.

The world's global debt problem is crushing the world economy, and it must be addressed before it comes to a very bad end.  If the debt itself, doesn't bring us down, think of the hundreds of trillions (notional value) in derivatives and swaps products that are used to insure and gamble on world debt?  Mr. Abe was right... a possible Lehman event is drawing nearer.  In order to the make the proposed central bank write downs feasible, some derivative and swap bets will need to be unwound.

So a few vulture capitalist and predators do not make a killing on the write down.

Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2016

Accountability

Accountability

Because something is happening here
But you don’t know what it is
Do you, Mister Jones?

-       Ballad of a Thin Man, by Bob Dylan

A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy. 

-       Peterson and variations Messrs. Tytler, Tocqueville, and Reagan

Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different from you and me.

-       F. Scott Fitzgerald

By J.M. Hamilton (5-14-2016)

When does one begin to cross over from middle life to old age? 

Some have said, it is when your friends start dying off, and you no longer recognize those around you; but for me and perhaps others, it is when society’s values and the times change, and they are no longer recognizable or relatable.

Watching the news feed over the last couple of weeks, I could feel my hair turning silver, that is the few remaining strands.  Ah, the perils of being an economics and political junkie.

Old middle-class values of truth, honesty, integrity, and accountability trampled under foot, and the U.S. government looted and pillaged for decades.  In fact, a complete lack of accountability, and not by - as Mr. Peterson suggests – the great unwashed masses; but rather, by the elite and the wealthy.

Money printing by global central banks props up nation states, and keeps heavily indebted corporations, the global banking cartel, and shadow banking afloat, in a universal Ponzi scheme.  As long as all the central banks are in engaged in a race to bottom, how can the dollar fair any worse, despite constant abuse heaped upon it by the Federal Reserve?  Money printing also sponsors and pays for tax cuts for the wealthy, offshore tax havens, and war w/out end.   All the better to enrich the robber barons, and their minions, the political class. 

But for every dollar printed up comes an obligation, or debt.  And the entire global economy is choking under the weight of it all.  In Japan, the debt driven economic malaise is referred to in terms of Lost Decade(s); and in America and Europe, we are a full eight years into this mess of subpar economic growth, trickle down monetary policy, stagnant wages, and ever increasing wage & wealth inequality.  (Seems that Comrade Obama turned out to be the plutocracy’s best friend.)

The politicians love it.  Money printing saves them the hassle of governing, and in turn, they and the elite can act with a complete lack of responsibility.

F. Scott Fitzgerald was correct.  The billionaire class really are different than us.  They are completely without morals.  And as they own the political class, if something is amoral (Malum in se), they can legislate away its illegality and give it the U.S. government’s imprimatur.  Time and time again, we see the elite’s stranglehold on SCOTUS, the U.S. Congress, and even in presidential politics.  The various branches dancing like puppets on a string, while our global empire does the big swirly down history’s lavatory.  Much of it due – as history shows time and time again - to a complete lack of ethics, responsibility, and accountability.  Or corruption by any other name.

Here now, a few examples that recently caught my eye:

SCOTUS

It’s not bad enough that nation’s highest court has placed the entire government up for sale, via Citizens United and assorted rulings, but they are presently considering legalizing outright graft and corruption.  Seems that the former governor of Virginia was helping out a business buddy, after receiving gifts and a loan, in a classic pay-to-play scandal.  The lower court correctly ruled the governor was a corrupt political hack, and a stain on the state.   But now, as the nation crumbles, SCOTUS may allow the governor to walk, expunge his crime, and legitimize pay-to-play.  Per Mr. McDonnell’s attorneys, as reported in NPR, these are “routine political activities.” 

No doubt.  But that doesn’t mean they should be made legal.

Congress of the United States

The latest Congress has to be near the top of the charts in terms of the least amount of legislation passed, and perhaps, the fewest days in session.  Legislating is such a chore, and so is breathing and exhaling hot air.  Besides if the House is owned – and we know they are, not unlike a toy poodle – if they are not legislating that is because their owners told them not to.  In short, the nation is on cruise control, and the elite like it that way.  Criminal Justice, tax, and campaign finance reform?  Forget about it.  Voting up or down on the President’s on-going wars in the Middle East, and globally… nah, the elite aren’t having it.   

Damn near every member of the House and the Senate should be sued for political malpractice, gross negligence, and a complete abdication of responsibility. 

Unfortunately, none of these things are a crime or a civil offense, and that’s by design.

The Presidential Campaign

Hillary (& Billfriend) was on the take, and apparently used her position at the State Department to cash in, and grant favors for some of the world’s nastiest actors (who just happened to make timely donations to the Clinton Foundation).  That’s old news, but the fact that Hillary’s Wall Street campaign contributions, per the WSJ/Marketwatch, are spiking right about now is current news.  The Clintons, like any good Republicans, have been Wall Street’s BFF for some time.  The Clinton’s high regard for the plutocracy, and GOP policies, helps explain why they hired right-wing campaign advisor, Dick Morris, in the 90s, and Hills is presently working with another right-wing eminento, David Brock.  Mr. Brock is running a SuperPAC for Hillary, and is ready to go endsjustifythemeans on anyone who gets in Hillary’s way.   

So much for Ms. Clinton’s newly found progressive values… watch them vanish the second she receives the nomination. 

The plutocracy and the corporate run news media have already picked the next POTUS, and she waffles like… well…. Mr. Trump.  Mr. Trump, believe it or not, had several redeeming qualities, among them:  he wasn’t a career politician; Mr. Trump was self-financed; he was upsetting the apple cart on a bankrupt - and bankrupting - U.S. foreign policy, that is a theatre of the absurd; and The Donald recognizes U.S. free trade – as presently practiced - for what it is, a U.S. middle class and economic wrecking ball.  But Mr. Trump has more than a few warts - and as with his base - bigotry, misogyny, and xenophobia are high on the list.  Moreover, anytime we scratch the surface and go beyond the campaign rhetoric (e.g. Mr. Trump’s tax policy) – we find it’s more of the same.  In the case of Trump’s tax policy, it's a Grover Norquist wet dream, that is to say, even greater tax cuts for the wealthy.  Now that Mr. Trump is the GOP nominee, he’s no longer self-financing, and he immediately ran to a hedge fund manager to start raising money from The Street.  How very Trump.  At least he’s consistent: say one thing, do another, and repeat.

That leaves us with the only respectable, honest, loved (can you believe it, this guy actually has a positive public approval rating…. how very novel for a presidential candidate), and consistent candidate still in the running, Mr. Sanders.  Perhaps it’s because of his old school/middle-class values, the candidate’s integrity, and his commitment to being accountable to his base, that the mainstream news media – and the plutocracy - despise the man.  Mr. Sanders could set himself on fire, and he’d still obtain a tenth of the coverage The Donald & Shillary receive on any given news day.  And yet, there he is winning state after state, and standing in the way of the faux-progressive’s imminent pivot to GOP-Land. 

God Bless Senator Sanders!  Can you imagine for a moment a president that actually shares your values:  that government shouldn’t be looted by the elite, but should work for everybody, and a president that does not pathologically engage in doublespeak? 

This maybe the last chance we get… imagine, if you will, a president that is not perennially under investigation, and that is both accountable and honest.  Ponder that a second longer, please, because if the HRC 13.0 gets in the White House, hell will assuredly follow.

The Panamanian Papers leak is just another in a long line of scandals illustrating that the billionaire class, and the political elite, are completely unaccountable and entirely rogue.  In short, these are not people we would want our children to grow up to be or emulate.  This latest leak shows that trillions have been hidden away in offshore tax havens, via shell companies, and hence, pay no taxes.  (The U.S. too, has become a haven.)  You see, paying taxes are for patsies, obeying laws are for suckers, and being a billionaire – or a connected politician – makes you above the law.

David Cameron, the British PM, has called an anti-corruption summit to begin dialogue about the problem.  But with Western Democracy subject to a corrupt campaign finance system(s) throughout Europe and in the Americas, do honest and law-abiding citizens actually believe anything will be done?  Mr. Cameron’s concern is that the public, via the Panama Papers leak & assorted sordid revelations, is waking up and growing very upset with the ruling establishment.  And the public is considering their options, whether it be very un-establishment political candidates, or Brexit or Grexit.

The aristocracy – a la Mr. Romney – sneers at half the population: we are all a bunch of takers, or beholding to their special powers for deal making.  The irony is the biggest takers, and welfare queens, on the planet happen to be an ultra-wealthy one-tenth of one percent.  That sucking sound is the wealthy pulling unaccounted for wealth out of what remains of our bankrupt Western governments, via: tax loopholes; legitimized tax havens; government & regulatory capture; privatization; war profiteers - milking endless Middle East conflict; paying a non-living wage and leaning on the government to subsidize one's profits - through welfare for the working poor; and bypassing governments and our court systems altogether, through free trade agreements.

Who knew the uber-wealthy were such parasites and big government addicts?

Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2016