UKRAINE

UKRAINE

“Oceania was at war with Eurasia; therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia.”   -  George Orwell, 1984

By J.M. Hamilton  3-14-2014

Oh, oh.  Big Oil and Big Death (the military industrial and intelligence complex) are upset.  This means politicians must snap to attention, and answer to their paymasters.

At issue, Big Oil has made a huge investment in natural gas, right about the same time natural gas has become both ubiquitous and very inexpensive, here in the States.  So plentiful in fact that the U.S. is staring at the prospect of becoming energy independent.  Moreover, inexpensive fuel means that manufacturing in the U.S., and the transportation of U.S. manufactured goods becomes less expensive and more competitive.  Which in turn, has the potential of setting off a U.S. manufacturing renaissance, jobs for Americans, greater discretionary spending from the public and higher aggregate demand, and a broader U.S. tax base (which further means, fewer Americans dependent upon the State, and a reduction in Federal deficit spending to support same). 

All good things, right?

Energy independence, also, frees America up from foreign entanglements in the Middle-East.  The U.S. having been so wildly successful at two recent nation-building exercises: one in Iraq, where a military dictator was replaced by a duly elected dictator; and a second exercise in Afghanistan, which has been an abject failure.   As a result of President Obama’s pledge to wind down the two nation-building exercises (in the case of Afghanistan, at nearly the same pace that President Nixon honored his commitment to pull the U.S. out of Vietnam), the DOD budget – which consumes half the nation’s discretionary Federal budget – is finally projected to shrink.  The oft quoted line, generally provided with disapproving histrionics, is that the U.S. military will shrink to pre-WWII levels.  If this actually happens, there are plenty off line budgets, black budgets, and assorted MIIC slush funds to make up the difference.  Such is the MIIC’s power, an awesome power that President Eisenhower, a GOP favorite, warned the nation about in his farewell address.

In sum:  More U.S. natural gas, equals less dependence upon foreign oil, equals more U.S. jobs, equals less of a need to be involved in Middle-East affairs.  And therefore, less of a need for a MIIC that is: outdated; riddled with waste and fraud; arguably, abuses our citizen soldiers; and in the case of the NSA, is prone to catastrophic over-reach, endangers the internet, and violates our constitutional principles, if not the constitution itself.  (A=B=C=D= Less need for the DOD)

All is right with the world, seemingly, and especially for a fleeting moment, for American citizens and the men and women who serve.  (America, of course, declared itself the winner in Iraq and Afghanistan; however, it certainly can be argued that both nation-building exercises were pitiful failures, diminished U.S. stature, and are a reminder that the MIIC, and foreign policy in its present incarnation, have become little more than just another excuse to make billions in war profits at the expense of the taxpayer, and the lives of U.S. soldiers.)

As mentioned, none of this sits well with Big Oil and Big Death, who have their own interests to consider.  In the case of Big Oil, it’s not enough to make record profits from quarter to quarter, or sit on a glut of fuel, or to restrict supply – via a limited number of refineries - so as to maintain higher prices at the pumps.  Or to enjoy billions in tax breaks, subsidized by ordinary Americans (and the Fed's printing press), who cannot afford the same lobbyist and politicians.  No.  What Big Oil wants is to ship America’s energy independence off shore, to more lucrative markets, and all the better to keep prices higher here at home.  If that means killing a nascent resurgence in domestic manufacturing, than so be it.  Jobs and ordinary Americans be damned, once again… they're just Big Oil's collateral damage. 

In the case of Big Death, it needs a new war, so as to fend off pending military cuts.  And since the Middle-East is a hot bed of economic and social unrest and ready-made for war, the DOD, presumably, doesn’t mind seeing U.S. energy independence shipped off shore either, or the U.S. steeped in Middle-East affairs, in order to keep the war machine grinding.

Now the political duopoly that runs this nation is prone to the money that flows from both Big Oil and Big Death; but Republicans in particular, who absolutely detest President Obama, are looking to paint the Democrats as classic peaceniks and “surrender monkeys,” because of the proposed MIIC cuts.  The GOP laments the lack of American leadership in the world, allegedly, provided by the current administration... code for, we need another war.  That President Obama humiliated the GOP by killing decade(s) long foes of America and the GOP – like O.B.L. and Col. Gadhafi – w/out an invasion or yet another failed nation building exercise (in the case of the latter with a multi-national force, no less), has made the GOP only dislike the President more.  President Obama has shown the U.S. that a bloated military bureaucracy is not only not needed, but with a national debt approaching 20 trillion, and one and four American children born into poverty, continued excessive MIIC spending is both unsustainable and unconscionable.

Ranting, raging and fuming... the G.O.P., Big Oil and Big Death need a new enemy and a rallying point.

As if on cue… Entrée President Vlad Putin and the crisis in the Ukraine.  This role was made for the man.  Mr. Putin is former KGB and reminds the GOP of the Cold War: when America rode tall, Russians were evil, Reagan was in power, our debt to GDP ratio was a fraction of where it stands today, and the sky was the limit for MIIC spending.  

There’s just a couple of problems for the MIIC, Big Oil, and the GOP with this analogy:  one, Mr. Putin – albeit being a detestable dictator – locking up an all girl rock band, named Pussy Riot – is not Joseph Stalin or Adolph Hitler; two, Russia is no more a Super Power than the State of Florida; three, today’s Russia, unlike the former Soviet Union, is not bent on global domination (Russia is just protecting its turf, after the U.S. and Europe took several former Eastern Bloc states into NATO… much like the U.S. would protect its interests, if Russia attempted to invade Mexico); and four, having become quasi-capitalist, the Russian oligarchs are fearful of being cut off from the world, via U.S. and European sanctions, and the Russian stock market has already taken a considerable pounding.

As for Crimea (a republic within the Ukraine), this is what colonist do… they put occupying citizens (Russians) in colonized lands (Crimea/Ukraine), so that they have an excuse to move in soldiers and tanks, at the first hint of an uprising from indigenous peoples.  Think of the approximately 30,000 U.S. troops in the Korean DMZ and South Korea… the U.S. soldiers who serve in the DMZ are little more than a speed bump to one of the largest armies on the planet, the North Korean army.  A speed bump designed to provoke the wrath of Big Death, herself; and hence, assure the world that only an absolute megalomaniacal dictator, worthy of removal, would dare run over said speed bump.  But I digress.

So, it’s clear why the GOP and the MIIC are infatuated with the evil Putin…. But how does Big Oil stand to gain?   It’s simple, President Putin exports natural gas to Europe, via the Ukraine, and uses the export of natural gas as both a carrot and a stick to keep the Ukraine and Europe (read Germany) in line…. At times cutting off supplies for political reasons, in the middle of winter.  (And we all thought Senator Mitch McConnell was heartless.)  The new U.S. foreign/energy policy proposal – to the absolute joy of Big Oil and its lobbyist – is America will export our energy independence and natural gas to Europe and flood world energy markets, so that Putin no longer has his carrot or his stick.  Yes, U.S. politicians, including our President, actually appear to be in favor of this stunt, which will likely cut off future U.S. manufacturing jobs, opportunity and an economic recovery, so that we can spite a tinhorn dictator.  

I call the crime of shipping U.S. LNG, and U.S. energy independence, into the world market, allegedly to help our European allies, a "stunt," because as pointed out in Foreign Affairs, U.S. LNG would actually be priced uncompetitively by the time it  reached Europe (factoring in processing and transportation).  The Ukraine and the Russians are just another excuse by Big Oil and the GOP, and a power grab, to hustle LNG out of the country, period.  U.S. LNGs true destination will ultimately be China and the Pacific Rim; and absolutely key, will be to create a global market and global spot price for LNG, so speculation can begin in earnest.  In military parlance, situation BOHICA.

That U.S. trade with the Ukraine amounts to a rounding error, compared to our national GDP, and that we have no national interests in the Ukraine… is apparently, beside the point. 

Big oil wants to add billions in natural gas revenue to their billions in profits, and it appears that Washington is going to give it to them, by foreign policy route.  To hell with ordinary Americans, the economy, and the tax base, and plundered U.S. national resources…. Exxon and the MIIC have got to make a killing!

President of Russia, Vladimir Putin Photo: Getty

There’s another key problem for the GOP, Big Oil and Big Death….   Americans, increasingly, aren’t buying what our corporate and political leadership are selling them.  The latest straw poll winner at the March CPAC conference was Mr. Rand Paul.  In fact, he’s won two years running.  Mr. Paul and libertarians, I believe, object to the U.S. being the world’s policeman for three primary reasons:  one, it’s unconstitutional; two, the nation has gone bust supporting a bellicose and bloated MIIC (and our plutocracy); and three, the FED is printing money to support our Big Death habit. 

How sustainable is that?   

So many in the conservative movement, if Mr. Paul is an indicator, probably believe the MIIC is a fraud and just another big government public works project run amok.  On the Left, the true Left (which actually meets up with Mr. Paul and Libertarians on many issues, particularly foreign policy), well they’d rather see, much like President Eisenhower would have, that much of MIIC funding go to feed and school U.S. children (a thought that would probably be considered criminal by the NSA and the CIA).

This of course, leaves the GOP establishment and prospective Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton as the only true military hawks/jingoist left standing in the room.  If they only realized that it is their foreign policy, utilizing the U.S. military on failed nation building exercises, that makes this country look weak, less credible, and tired.

If I can humbly offer one word of advice to Mr. Paul, and foes of excessive MIIC spending and Big Oil on the Left, it is this: Don’t make excuses for President Putin.  Let’s call a dictator a dictator, but let’s not make a mountain out of a Russian molehill either, as the GOP establishment and Clintonian Democrats would have us do over the Ukraine. (Yes, Ukrainians deserve our sympathy, moral support, and economic assistance; but if America has learned anything from Iraq and Afghanistan, it is that foreign revolutions cannot be sponsored or fought by proxy forces, and in particular the MIIC, with any degree of sustained success.)

After all, “Putti”… while a bad, bad boy…. Hardly warrants an additional dime of MIIC spending, and he does not warrant the export of U.S. energy independence offshore. 

President Putin certainly doesn’t deserve the attention he receives daily from all the major U.S. news organizations, all under corporate control. 

Gee, do you think all that concentrated media attention on the former Soviet Union and the Ukraine is by design?  This begs the question: do we really want the Comcast monopoly to have yet more power in controlling the news and content flow, with the Time Warner merger?

“Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia?????” 

Yeah, that about sums it up!

Trust me on this one.  We will not see the equivalent to PM Neville Chamberlain flying back from Germany to declare that “there will be peace in our time,” due to some like aggression perpetrated on the world by a President Putin.  From the Russian perspective and our own, President Putin’s actions in the Ukraine are reactionary, but certainly not revolutionary or unexpected.  Nor would any sane or rational President send U.S. troops into harms way to fight the Ukraine's battles, and to his everlasting credit, the President is not proposing this.

President Obama gets a lot of credit for focusing on America and Americans, and not launching this nation into yet another war.  The President should not, however, make threats that he cannot or should not follow through on. 

Besides, the U.S. has much more creative ways to topple dictatorships, and Mr. Putin, should he get out of line.  Mr. Jefferson's statement immediately comes to mind, when he once called Banks more powerful than standing armies.  Just ask former Egyptian President Mubarak, and the former government of Iceland, circa 2007-2008.

P.S.

I really got a charge out of David Brooks column this week in the NY Times, The Leaderless Doctrine.  Mr. Brooks, the resident conservative at the Times, lamented - among other things - that Americans are increasingly more isolationist in outlook, have less respect for authority and U.S political and business leadership, and only 19% of millennials believe their fellow citizens can be trusted.  

What could cause such distrust.... Oh, I don't know, perhaps it was:

Two failed wars with the ultimate economic and fiscal cost unknown for years to come, but certainly north of two trillion dollars, and thousands of U.S. war dead.

Or perhaps, it was a 2008 financial crisis, in which ordinary Americans are still paying the price, while the plutocracy has been bailed out, repeatedly.

Perhaps it's the Citizens United SCOTUS decision that placed our government up for sale to the highest bidder.

Maybe it's an obstructionist congress that puts politics and money above the public good, as a matter of standard operating procedure.

Maybe it's a rigged legal and tax system... rigged in the plutocracies favor and rigged against everyone else.  I could go on and on.

Could it be Private Equity business practices that are not entrepreneurial, but little more than the maxing out of a corporates' credit line, so pirates can get rich, while workers, the tax base, and investors pay the price.

If Mr. Brooks and our "leadership" are wondering why Americans no longer trust hierarchies and our present economic and political elites... perhaps they only need take a long hard look in the mirror.

Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2014