Saturday, July 19, 2014

History is written by Winners…


History is written by Winners…

#53
When rich speculators prosper
While farmers lose their land;
when government officials spend money
on weapons instead of cures;
when the upper class is extravagant and irresponsible
while the poor have nowhere to turn-
all this is robbery and chaos.
It is not in keeping with the Tao.


By J.M. Hamilton 7-19-14

Random thoughts and musings this long, hot month of July, and in particular, how future generations will  – through the prism of time and futurity - view America, and today’s ruling elite.  My immediate guess is that today’s ruling oligarchs will not be viewed by successive generations favorably, and if our ancestors are looking down, do they shake their heads in shame and wonder?  Let’s examine the following current events to possibly gain a better perspective, and learn how history may be written and play-out.

Former Vice President Dick Cheney & the Failed War in Iraq

Dick Cheney’s advocacy for the war in Iraq is well known.  The history of lies, half-truths and misinformation told by the Bush Administration, to drag this country into the Iraq war, are by now well known.  Trillions of U.S. dollars will ultimately be wasted on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, complete with thousands of U.S. war dead, and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi citizens killed.  The mission in Iraq was poorly defined, and executed from the beginning, and the Bush Administration in a last ditch effort hung its hat on a so-called  “surge” and one General Patreaus; but the “surge” was little more than a payoff to Iraqi Sunni and Baath Party insurgents.   When the payoffs ceased, and U.S. troops finally pulled out, the inevitable happened under a Shiite dictator: The country broke out into civil war.

Now, with Chancellor Cheney’s legacy and war are on line, and his epitaph nearly complete, this warmonger and his neo-conmen continue to clamor for an exercise in futility.  Fortunately, neither Republicans nor Democrats are listening, or buying what Mr. Cheney is selling.  The irony in all this is that Mr. Cheney dodged the Vietnam War, another failed nation building exercise, and served in the Nixon administration, along with one Donald Rumsfeld.  So if anyone should have known what a catastrophe Iraq would become, it was Richard.  Mr. Cheney evaded Vietnam with five draft deferments and was quoted by the W. Post as stating: “I had other priorities in the 60s than military service.”  Spoken like a true armchair quarterback, and an elitist.  I wonder if he’d feel differently if his two daughters were on the front line?

Probably not.

The Iraq war however, was never about protecting America or Americans, or spreading democracy.  Historians will be quick to note that Iraq sits on one of the largest deposits of proven oil reserves in the world, and Mr. Cheney, as the former CEO of Halliburton and Kellogg, Brown and Root (oil field and defense contractors) wanted at those reserves, and wanted those DOD contracts.  As this blog has pointed out on more than several occasions, America goes to war for oil, and to protect multinational and foreign sovereign interests.  Essentially, the nation’s fighting force, manned by the nation’s poor in today’s all volunteer military, were being sacrificed on the altar of war for multinational/KBR profits, to make the Sovereigns and Monarchs wealthier, and to protect global oligarchs’ assets.  Remember, Iraq had absolutely nothing to do with 9-11.  Fortunately, the U.S. has wised up to Mr. Cheney, and many of us wonder if he’d like to give up the heart he received, courtesy of the U.S. taxpayer he has so little regard for.  Republicans espouse fiscal conservatism and welfare cuts for those in need, but when it comes the DOD, the NSA, and warfare, the sky is the limit, even at the risk of running the nation into the ground, fiscally.

President Obama, in direct contrast to Mr. Cheney, has done everything in his power to keep this nation out of armed conflict, and has won geo-political conflicts time and time again, w/out the use of standing armies or nation building exercises.   Just like another President Mr. Cheney failed to learn from, named Ronald Reagan, who won the cold war w/out firing a shot.

The Chamber of Commerce and Exxon’s Love Affair with Dictator Putin – “Scary” Indeed

Like many of us, I too, work for corporate America, and I am proud of the job I am privileged to hold and the company I work for.  But too many corporations today, take a very “quarterly statement” view of the world.   Multinationals want all the privileges of a sovereign state, but none of the social responsibility.  Too many corporations and billionaires want the rights of the individual and to dictate U.S. domestic and foreign policy, like the monarchs of old, and they absolutely abhor attempts to hold them responsible for criminal conduct.  

Mega-corporations are unwilling to run for public office, at least yet. 
President Carlyle Group?   Maybe someday, but for now, better to manipulate and pay-off (make campaign contributions) Congress from the shadows, and engage in regulatory capture.

The arrogance and unmitigated greed of the Chamber of Commerce was on full display recently, when the Chamber lobbied Congress to back off on pursuing sanctions against Dictator Putin, one of the darkest despots in the world today.  The Chamber represents the interest of many U.S. multinationals, who are presently working in the former Soviet Union, under the regime of a communist thug and Ex-KGB agent (whose respect for human rights and the rule of law are non-existent).  Gee, did it ever occur to Exxon that prudent political risk-management might give them pause before leaping into Mother Russia?  And did Mr. Rex Tillerson, along with the Chamber, really think he could dictate U.S. foreign policy, and help finance the Russian military? 

Why not.  Multinationals have been dictating policy to the U.S. government for years, particularly Republican administrations, but Demos too.  Far be it for Exxon and the Chamber to lobby Dictator Putin, directly, and demand that he abandon Crimea, the Ukraine, and respect human rights.  Instead the Chamber followed and lobbied via the path of least resistance, our crony – gerrymandered – U.S. congress (essentially doing Putin's bidding).  That the policy dictated by Exxon and the Chamber is often myopic, greed-centric, and all too often inimical to the interests of the vast majority of Americans, let alone citizens of the world….. well, that’s business as usual.  The Chamber and Exxon are so used to having their every word executed upon by our government officials, as they work from the periphery, the shadows and K Street.  Exxon also, courtesy of Mr. Cheney, made a big investment in Iraq…. Only to, recently, bail and flee.  How long before multinationals, and the Chamber, flee the former U.S.S.R…. just like British Petroleum did sometime ago?

Don't forget Exxon, along with Big Oil, receives billions in tax subsidies... that's billions that you, Dear Taxpayer, pay for out of your own pockets. 

And what will the historians say about the integrity and responsibility of the Chamber's and Exxon's deal with, and advocacy for, the Devil?


Nine Monarchs

The founding fathers did a terrific job on many aspects of the constitution.  The whole checks and balances thing, to this day, plays out in many instances.  Perhaps too much so - given Congress’ failure to act, in the hopes of showing up a President that they absolutely loathe.  What were the founders possibly thinking, however, when they created the judicial branch?  If there ever was an ultra-elitist and most undemocratic body in our government, than this is it, SCOTUS.  These nine justices can sit on this court for generations, pull “stuff” out of the air, contradict their own rulings interminably, revise their own rulings behind the scenes and after the fact (w/out notice to the American people, let alone legal scholars); and continually, have found new ways to hold back society, women, minorities and the human race. 

They are all liars… oh sorry, meant to say lawyers.  If there was ever a profession that needed to be placed upon a leash, it is the legal profession.  Shakespeare was quoted in Henry VI , “The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers.”  A thought that must have crossed many an American’s mind, whom ever had to sit in a U.S. court of law.  (That’s not say there aren’t quality legal professionals out there with morals and scruples; I’ve met several over the years.) The founding fathers were fleeing persecution, tyranny, and King George’s autocracy… why on earth, give SCOTUS unlimited power?  Or is it simply a matter of this court growing more powerful over the span of time, and granting themselves powers un-enumerated by the constitution?  Maybe our founders never anticipated the life expectancy of today’s SCOTUS members, vis a vis 1787’s life expectancy.

This most recent coven (The Roberts Court) has done more damage to the rights of man, and expanded exponentially the rights of corporations and wealthy individuals to usurp the democratic process, then any court heretofore.  The hubris and arrogance surrounding five of these nine monarchs is astounding.  If there was ever a body in need of term limits, this is it; if there ever was a crime perpetrated by our founding fathers against the American people, than this is the place.  As it stands today, future historians might suggest SCOTUS has become a tool of the plutocracy.  Citizens United, McCuthcheon…. These SCOTUS decisions spell out the death of democracy, and an accelerated race to destroy the middle-class.

By way of example, Justice Scalia was appointed by Ronald Reagan nearly thirty years ago to the most powerful court on the planet, and is quite possibly the most reactionary politician, within the federal government today.  How grounded is this man, or sane for that matter – just two years shy of being an octogenarian, and what possibly could this man know about the reality 99% of Americans face daily?  (The CIA fact book estimates the median age of Americans at 37.6 years of age.  This means half of all Americans are at least forty years, or more, younger than Justice Scalia.  Chew on your olive for moment and ponder that fact, as you sip on your extra dry martini this summer weekend.)  And yet, Justice Scalia, when his vote is tied to four other justices, has the power to usurp democratically elected congressional and executive branches, purely on a whim, and all too often in favor of the true puppet masters, the oligarchs.

A Destroyer of the Economy and Opportunity: Private Equity Equals Bankruptcy!

Capitalism's claim to fame is that it creates jobs, opportunity, and most effectively and efficiently produces goods and services (and I still believe that); and yet, there is a class of business in our society today that makes a killing for an elite few by eliminating jobs, crushing opportunity, and after maxing out a company's credit line - all too often runs said company into bankruptcy.  I write of course, of private equity.  The fact that many companies, who are owned by private equity firms, ultimately, end up in bankruptcy court is not in dispute. 

The NY Times reported that 50% of the bankruptcies reported in 2008 were either presently owned by private equity (PE) firms, or previously owned by PE firms.  No greater icon of capitalism than Warren Buffett was recently quoted as stating that he rued the day he ever heard of TXU (aka Energy Future Holdings), which is one of the largest PE bankruptcies, if not the largest, reported to date.


PE consistently burns investors, businesses, employees, and on a macro level is highly deleterious to the tax base and the overall economy.  And yet, because these pirates are hugely wealthy, they are all too often celebrated.  That there business is successfully based upon unseemly amounts of debt, and leveraging a rigged tax code, is beside the point.

What will future generations say about a business model that destroys opportunity, jobs, and is the primary catalyst for globalization and M&A activity, that all too often leads to industries dominated by monopolies and cartels?  Cerberus, Apollo, Carlyle Group, KKR, Blackstone.... These folks do not liberate companies, they destroy them.

The fact that one of these fat cats can buy up a copy of the Magna Carta, or an original copy of the Declaration of Independence, and place it on display for the public view.... Does not for one second atone for the economic carnage caused by private equity, the lives destroyed, and the careers cut short.  Not to mention PE’s ruinous results for our Federal government, which is left holding the bag with a diminished tax base and higher relief payments for displaced workers.  

Private Equity is nothing to emulate and does not even qualify as capitalism, it is something to be shut down and abolished.  Interestingly enough, some GOP members have not learned from Mr. Romney's example, and now it appears that Mr. Jeb Bush is involved in the same business practices.

Which raises the question, just how serious is Mr. Bush about a presidential candidacy, or is his interest in seeking the republican nomination more about hiking up his speaking fees?


Tax Cheats,  A-Hoy!

"Double Irish, Dutch Sandwich, Check the Box," and private equity's personal favorite, "Carried Interest," these are all the names of tax dodges employed by wealthy Americans, corporations, and multinationals to greatly reduce their tax burden, if not eliminate it altogether.  Which means you, Dear 99%, get to pay a significantly higher tax rate so as to pay for the shortfall that occurs when the rich don't pay their equitable share.  The wealthy in turn re-invest the tax dollars they should have paid in to ventures, such as: undermining democracy (i.e. buying off - sorry, meant to say making "campaign contributions" to -  politicians for political support), lobbying for tax holidays and maintaining and expanding additional tax loopholes, and M&A activity - which as described above kills jobs, opportunity, and causes wages to stagnate.

All of this I described in a piece a little over a year ago, entitled:  Your Tax Dollars at Work.

Now I would argue that not paying taxes - leaving your fellow Americans left to pay higher taxes on your tax-dodging behalf - is not only quintessentially Un-American, but I think we can argue that it is near treasonous (as it leaves our federal government in a perilous fiscal state).  Many of these corporations employing these dodges earn millions, if not billions,directly from government contracts: G.E., Booz Allen owned by Carlyle Group, assorted defense contractors, and medical care providers.  And members of Big Oil, who enjoy tax subsidies - despite making billions - are probably one of the primary beneficiaries of our extravagant DOD and attempts to police the world. And then there's Big Pharma, who not only charges full price for their medicine in America (perhaps the only Western Democracy where this is allowed, which is a huge expense to the nation), but also deploys the latest tax loophole du jour, called "Inversion."

Inversion is where American companies (who enjoy: the rule of law in America; America's defense forces affording unprecedented protection; her crony political system - the best money can buy; and her captured courts, regulatory system and tax code) buy a foreign company, so that they can transfer their headquarters outside U.S. borders to avoid paying U.S. taxes altogether.

Leaving you, Dear Fellow Americans, left holding the bag, with higher tax payments, higher national debt, and decreased government services.  Here's a number to put on these tax cheats, the cumulative price tag on all this legalized corporate tax fraud is estimated by our own government to be $12 trillion over the next decade.

The only thing more Un-American than the companies who leave our shores to duck out on their tax responsibility, are the politicians in Congress, who voted these loopholes into place, and who are “paid” contributions not to reform our perfidious tax code.

The solution for inversion is easy.  If a company leaves America to dodge taxes… they should not be allowed to operate in the market that controls 25% of world GDP, the United States.  Inversion should equal a ban on operating within American markets.  These same companies who leave, should also have their patents and licenses revoked, and their U.S. assets sold to the highest bidder company, that operates in America, pays taxes in America, and hires Americans.  This same solution could be applied to American companies that want to offshore their labor.

In brief, the political Left doesn't have to make the case for wealth confiscation.  Companies who leave U.S. shores to dodge paying taxes, are making the case for wealth confiscation, themselves. 


Unfortunately, I could continue further writing about the moral decline of some American corporations, but I'm running out of time: A car company, bailed out by the American taxpayer, who makes a deadly product, and then ignores the problem…. And on, and on, and on!

So let’s go back now, to the primary premise of this piece, and based upon the evidence above, try and learn how future generations (e.g. our children and grand children) might view us?    

Well, not very well, unfortunately. 

GOP presidential candidate Romney and SCOTUS believe corporations are people.  Granted not all corporations are the same, and “no,” not all corporations are evil.  Like ordinary citizens, the picture on corporations is mixed.  There are many well meaning companies and businesses out there, who want nothing more than to provide a quality/safe product or service, and make a reasonable profit.  And there are many who do just that.  Business in America is as American as apple pie.  

However, perhaps far too many businesses, corporations, and multinationals are run by management teams and/or board of directors that would appear to have sociopathic tendencies, or are perhaps anti-social, or equally treacherous, maybe are Anti-American.  Before affording an analogy tied into the examples above as proof, let’s define “sociopath,” shall we? 

The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM IV-TR) is another widely used tool for the diagnosis and it defines sociopath traits as:

A) Pervasive pattern of disregard for and violation of the rights of others occurring since age 15 years, as indicated by three or more of the following:

1.    Failure to conform to social norms with respect to lawful behaviors as indicated by repeatedly performing acts that are grounds for arrest
2.    Deception, as indicated by repeatedly lying, use of aliases, or conning others for personal profit or pleasure
3.    Impulsiveness or failure to plan ahead
4.    Irritability and aggressiveness, as indicated by repeated physical fights or assaults
5.    Reckless disregard for safety of self or others
6.    Consistent irresponsibility, as indicated by repeated failure to sustain consistent work behavior or honor financial obligations
7.    Lack of remorse as indicated by being indifferent to or rationalizing having hurt, mistreated, or stolen from another

B) The individual is at least age 18 years.

C) There is evidence of conduct disorder with onset before age 15 years.

D) The occurrence of antisocial behavior is not exclusively during the course of schizophrenia or a manic episode.
 

Now, if corporations are people, and an ordinary American was to be a proponent of say: unlimited warfare (quite possibly for personal gain), like I don’t know, former Halliburton CEO, Mr. Dick Cheney; and this same “American” person was to back (provide U.S. technological support and financial assistance to) one of the most notorious dictators on the planet, named Putin ---- like the Chamber of Commerce and Exxon; and this American person destroyed businesses, jobs and economic opportunity by maxing out corporate credit lines, and sending acquired companies, repeatedly, into bankruptcy, as Private Equity does everyday; and this “American”/possible Sociopath/possible Psychopath refused to pay taxes, but reaped all the rewards of their citizenship (and in fact reaped significant wealth from their relations with government officials, SCOTUS, and a rigged tax code)…. Like various U.S. companies deploying tax inversions and tax dodges from a loophole laden tax code…… Well, we’d probably throw this individual in jail for life?   

In fact, where I came from, Texas, some people might just dispense with the jail time altogether, and find themselves a rope.  (Personally, I'm not a fan of frontier justice.  The worst punishment is to let someone rot in a corporate run U.S. prison, and deal with the U.S. courts.  Welcome to the 10th ring of hell.)

Or maybe, Americans would make this person Vice President of the United States.

Yet, Mr. Romney assures us, as does SCOTUS, that corporations are people, too.  Apparently, some corporations can get away with unlimited warfare, advocate bombings for no sane or rational reason (or based upon a pack of lies), stealing national resources from sovereign peoples, holding down women and minorities, cheating on taxes, and running businesses into the ground, and crushing the economy for personal gain (while thumbing their nose at America and planting their freak-flag on foreign soil).

That my dear friends, is how our children and grandchildren are likely to view us, after this country has been thoroughly raped, sacked, and looted… and our kids and grand-kids are left with nothing, but a mountain of federal debt.  For not only are We The People the victims of these various nefarious acts, but we are also – in a democratic society – the enablers.

Many of us, my GOP friends in particular, love to blame the government for society's ills and problems, but perhaps it's time to take a very hard look at the enterprises and mega-wealthy individuals, who are the true puppet masters (and pull the strings on a congress - with a single digit approval rating, and SCOTUS).

They say that history is written by winners.  Well, if this is the future we are bequeathing our children, than I’m afraid we are all going to be viewed as losers, especially many of the wealthiest among us.

The wealthy and their minions will say this piece smacks of class warfare, and we can't have that; but no greater authority on the matter than Mr. Warren Buffett has said that the rich have been practicing class warfare on the 99% for decades.  Guess who won in the short run?

P.S.  


Here’s the Top Eight Reasons, we know we are in the middle of yet another Bubble caused by the Federal Reserve and Central Banksters, globally:

1)    Individual investors are flooding back into the stock market, at the market’s peak (a sure sign that the "pros" are about to take their winnings and leave).
2)    Private Equity executives talk about their returns and their market conditions, as being “biblical.”
3)    Junk debt is at record low interest rates, and bond offerings often afford no protective covenants or conditions.
4)    Business fundamentals and the economy are marginal at best, but the stock market continues to soar to record heights.
6)    There’s so much free money lying around, that the only thing CEOs can think of to do with it, are stock buybacks (again at a market peak?).
7)    Insiders are selling stock, not purchasing it. 

And the top reason we know we are in another Bubble:
8)    The Federal Reserve and Central Banksters deny that we are in a Bubble.  

They are always, allegedly, the last to know.  Fear not, however, there’ll be plenty of time to bail.  The market won’t falter until after the 2014 mid-term elections.

Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2014

Sunday, July 13, 2014

The Sovereign Debt Crisis is Sucking...



 
Portugal reminded us yet again this week that as much as Central Banksters try to paper over the 2008 crisis with a fire hose of liquidity and record low interest rates, w/out addressing the real problems (Insolvent banks, too big to fail banks, and crony relations between governments and the banking sector), the crisis remains and Western economies stagnate…. Just as predicted by J.M.H. (7-13-14)



The Sovereign Debt Crisis is Sucking the Wind out of the Global Economy…. The “Can” Just Got Punted Down the Road!

By J.M. Hamilton  5-10-2010

Wow, what a difference a weekend makes.  Do you ever notice how central banks do their “wild and craziest” maneuvers on the weekends: whether it’s letting Lehman Bros slide into oblivion, or deciding to bailout AIG (or was that a weekday?), or in the case of Europe, bailing out PIIGS!   Looking into the future when it comes to bailing out the world’s fiat currency, one might imagine that happening on the weekend, too.

One of the words we heard thrown around Europe’s second bailout of the banks is “sterilization” of the expansion of money supply.   Simply put, “sterilization” means as money is pumped into the European central banks, if I have this correct, the banks will give up their toxic PIIGS debt in exchange for European or Euro debt, so that money supply is not increased.  

What a relief!

Either way you look at it folks, the Euro just got a little bit weaker with one trillion Euros magically appearing from no where, and toxic assets being moved on to yet another central bank’s balance sheet.

Why this special emphasis, by our European brethren, on money supply “sterilization?”

Well, because the Europeans remember very well (unlike some Americans) the Weimar Republic and how hyper inflation led to the rise of a paper hanger/would-be artist, named Adolph Hitler, and the global calamity called World War II.  Europeans remember, all too well, particularly Germans, the whirring of the printing presses and currency created out of thin air, and the resulting madness.   And the Germans just to show the world that they remember their history voted resoundingly against Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democrats…  and as of Sunday, her party is no longer holding down the upper house of German Parliament, due to Merkel’s real or perceived support of the bailout that transpired this weekend.

Sure, this time, the world is a little more sophisticated The major banks  – which are beholding to the politicians for their bailouts – have agreed, in their Japanese-Zombie state, to leverage up the free money they receive from their respective governments, and “hoover-up” the ever-expanding national debt.  Heh, why not… after all, taxpayer funded rates of return trump the vagaries of lending to the private sector any day.  

Right?

Except there’s one problem:  The crowding out effect is coming to fruition, as government borrowing takes precedence over providing credit to businesses in the private sector, which has a stifling effect on jobs creation and tax revenue.

What we are in right now, citizens of the world, is a vicious economic cycle, perhaps globally – certainly in the U.S. and Europe, where governments, who depend upon the private sector for jobs creation and a tax base, are literally destroying private sector opportunity – through the crowding out effect in the credit markets.  Check out the Shadow Banking web site, and the contraction of M3 or the money supply (http://www.shadowstats.com/charts/monetary-base-money-supply).

The cycle continues in that governments in turn have to borrow higher and higher amounts of money to provide benefits for the ever growing ranks of the unemployed, which leads to even greater private sector crowding out within the credit markets.  If we review our history further, the last country to crowd out the private sector, totally, this time at the barrel of a gun, was the former U.S.S.R.   And many of us remember how that story ended.

The Wall Street Banks, and their European Peers, were bailed out in 2008…. For making wild bets on speculative real estate, and real estate CDOs and derivative products.  But now we can already see that European banks are being bailed out, less than two years later, for holding junk sovereign debt.   The worry of the major powers in Europe has not been avoided by this weekend’s events, that a chain of sovereign dominoes would fall (as the stronger nations attempted to bailout their weaker sister states); but rather, the thesis has been confirmed.

And now, the PIIGs must anti-up with politically unpopular social benefit reductions, and tax increases – all contractionary economic policies – or dissolve in chaos, as governments are overrun and are overturned by their upset citizens.  We saw hints of social unrest in Greece just last week.  More than likely, those same citizens will be hitting the streets again, very soon.  Either that, or the Greek government will not enact the spending and tax reforms necessary, so that they will be back at the E.U., yet again, looking for additional bailouts.

Moral hazard affirmed once again… this time, among sovereigns and the banks that lend to them.

Unfortunately, few politicians have the political will to address these issues There’s always an excuse to kick the can down the road a little further:  say political expediency, an election around the corner, an economy that isn’t quite back on its feet, or wars to be fought and wars to be won.

The cold hard reality however, is that when a currency is weakened by over expansion, or inflation, subsequent bailouts become increasingly more expensive, and, possibly, more frequent, until such time as the currency is no longer viewed as holding any value.  World banks steeped in the U.S. dollar and euro holdings, in the long run, may be no better off than they were going into this weekend holding PIIGS’ debt.

Our banks and governments ability to handle the next economic catastrophe, or geo-political crisis, is now in question.  The hope is that these successive bailouts will give the economy time to heal, and that we can grow our way out of our problems, or take on contractionary fiscal policies – during better economic times; but increasingly, one wonders if the bank bailouts are just a means of kicking the “can” just a little further down the road, and only serving to aggravate the inevitable day of reckoning?

 Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2014

Friday, June 27, 2014

NOT Liberal, Libertarian, or Populist Enough…. For 2016.


NOT Liberal, Libertarian, or Populist Enough…. For 2016.

“You could say I'd lost my belief in our politicians -They all seemed like game show hosts to me…”  - Sting, If I Ever Lose my Faith in You

By  J.M. Hamilton 6-28-14

Yes, Mrs. Clinton is running for President, and her campaign strategy is already abundantly clear.  Quite simply the establishment's Trojan-candidate will become the nation's first woman President by becoming the "Anti-Bill," and by boring us into apathy and submission.  Have you heard this lady speak, or read her new book?

Looking for a cure for insomnia?

We surrender already.  We know Mrs. C has been bucking for the top slot in the corporation for some time... Her resume screams it.  From when she "temped" as the junior Senator from New York to her recent stint as Secretary of State.   A job in which Mrs. Clinton was so understatedly unsuccessful that she had no response when asked to list her achievements, as Madame Secretary, and neither could Foggy Bottom produce a list either.  After all, it wouldn't do to tell her adoring base that her greatest achievement at State was to act as a shill for Boeing, at the taxpayer's expense.  I know pretty snarky, but what part of the above isn’t true?

The Clintons sold out a long time ago... whether it was asking arch-right-winger Senator Jesse Helm's campaign advisor, Dick Morris, to run the Clinton's 1996 re-election campaign.  Or uniting with Treasury Secretary Rubin (of Goldman $achs fame) and Senator Phil Gramm (R. - TX) in the repeal of Glass-Steagall and deregulating swaps and derivatives.  We often forget, deep within the inter sanctum that is Hillary 4.0 beats the heart of a Goldwater Republican.

It's all here, the Clinton years: The Prelude to the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the resulting Great Recession.

In fact, Clintonian politics is symptomatic of today's binary/winner take all political economy.  On the heals of Mr. Reagan (after a very brief Bush interlude), the Clinton’s led the way with extraordinary '90s deregulation and welfare state rollbacks.  The GOP is now so extreme, and the nation and the Democratic Party have been pulled so far right, that today's core Democratic Party looks a great deal like the all but extinct "moderate republican," or what I like to call GOP-Lite.  The result of this extremism and the rendering of the social contract, in line with Newton's Third Law: A Populist backlash at home, and in Europe, and I would argue globally.

With the economic disparity (i.e. inequality) between the one percent and the balance of the nation never greater, and finally receiving the long overdue attention it deserves, even “Hills,” whose Clintonian policies helped to usher in a neo-gilded age, is now attempting to burnish her populist cred?

Good luck with that.  More likely, the uber-hawk can't wait to be ensconced into the oval office and lead this nation quite possibly, into yet another war, presumably as payback to all those defense contractors, who will write lavish checks for her coronation.  Iron Lady II?  That's probably not far off the mark.  Remember it was Senator Clinton who voted for W's, and Cheney’s, and Blair’s folly in Iraq.  

"Mission Accomplished,"indeed.

So go back to sleep progressives, liberals, and libertarians because this one (2016) already appears in the bag.... Mrs. Clinton's withering drone demands submission and somnolence, and is more deadly than a fleet of drones of an entirely different sort, aptly named Predator and Reaper.

Mrs. Clinton is said to have never met a dollar that she didn't like, and that makes her both highly malleable and much sought after by this country's billionaire aristocracy.

Of course, it doesn't have to be this way... The establishment doesn't always have to win, nor do Americans have to go on perpetually bailing out the Wall Street cartel, and the plutocracy, on the backs of the poor and our children.

All it takes is to focus and a brewing populist revolt at the polls.

That and a couple of brave souls to step forward, like.... Senators Elizabeth Warren and Rand Paul.  The "establishments" worst nightmare and respectively, the best hope for humanity and this nation's future.


Politics makes strange bedfellows, and some say, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”...Senators Warren and Paul may utilize different reasoning, logic, and ideologies to draw the same conclusions; but the really important point is that these two leaders, often via circuitous routes, repeatedly draw the same conclusions on many of the same issues and are often 100 percent correct.  Both are populist and neither is a friend of the plutocracy, or the establishment that has bankrupted this nation.  Therefore, they already have the majority of Americans support.  Whether most Americans know these two individuals, yet, is an entirely different story.

So let's quickly run down why these two senators are at the right place, at precisely at the right time, for protecting the nation from yet another round of Clintonian politics.  Think of Warren and Paul as a safety valve for what remains of our democracy, the best democracy money can buy - thanks to SCOTUS/Roberts/Scalia.

Issue One:  Foreign Policy

Warren comes at this from a more cerebral aspect, in that she basically adopts General Stanley McChrystal's maximum that when you kill one terrorist you are likely creating ten more.  Mr. McChrystal led the war in Afghanistan before being sacked by President Obama, because his staff popped off in Rolling Stone (I have often wondered if President Obama knew of Mr. McChrystal’s thoughts, emails, phone conversations, and peccadillos well in advance of the Rolling Stone article- just like another General's downfall - via email, Patreaus - and could the President have been informed, courtesy of the NSA and a rival General Alexander?  But I digress.).  

General McChrystal and Warren are both right of course, and they have two failed wars, a bankrupt nation, and war weary public to point to as support.  Meanwhile, militant Islam has not been subdued by U.S. power, only made more virulent.  Not to mention a suicide rate among active duty soldiers that is a national disgrace.  Establishment Republicans, and the "Neo Con-men," believe every thing can be resolved from the barrel of a gun (Senator John McCain being a case in point).  That's what makes Mr. Paul such an anomaly as he argues from our founder’s perspective to beware of foreign entanglements, and from the law’s perspective that the U.S. has no constitutional prerogative to play the world's policeman.  Moreover, efforts for America to play the world's top cop have both failed, repeatedly, and ran up the U.S. national debt by the trillions.

Both Paul and Warren are correct, and would likely keep this nation out of yet another war.  If Afghanistan and Iraq have revealed anything to the American people, it is that the U.S. doesn't go to war to spread peace and democracy; no, America goes to war for oil, and to protect multinational corporate and sovereign/foreign interests (here, think of the Royal House of Saud, and the Europeans).

As for the Clintons, remember Kosovo?  A war conveniently, ramped up, at the same time Mr. Clinton was under fire for the Monica Lewinsky scandal.  "Wag the dog" during the Clinton's third crowning?  It's an all too real possibility.  As for our European, and our so-called Saudi allies, isn't it time for them to fight their own battles?  America is energy independent.  Why are we sending the nation’s poor to die for Monarchs who spread Wahhabism, and Europeans, who take off the month of August to vacation on the French Rivera?

Issue Two:  The NSA & Privacy

I have to give this one to Mr. Paul.  Hell, he's actually suing the NSA, which makes the German Stasi look like the boy scouts.  Only Orwell could have envisioned an organization that has been so damaging to this nation's reputation, U.S. global security, and U.S. global commercial (IT) interests (not to mention is evil-incarnate).  As a Libertarian, you can tell that Mr. Paul feels strongly that the NSA has made a perfidious hash out of the constitution and our civil liberties.  Mrs. Warren has written a letter with several other Senators protesting the NSA, and helped sponsor legislation to rein in the Surveillance State, but beyond that she's been rather reticent.

Mrs. Clinton, on the other hand, has never seen a taxpayer funded defense, or intelligence, dollar spent that she didn't like.  Some of those dollars, undoubtedly, and indirectly, find there way back to the Clinton Foundation.

Here, I'll take the two Senators any day, as the truly sincere alternative to Mrs. Clinton, whom less than 50% of the voters believe is truthful.

Issue Three:  The Wall Street Cartel


As Mr. Paul is known for being outspoken on MIC and NSA matters, Mrs. Warren is the Queen of Wall Street containment.  It's not that Mrs. Warren is anti-Wall Street per se, it's that she's passionately against the fraud and double-dealing that passes for standard business practice on the Street, and recognizes the tremendous drag on the economy that Wall Street represents.  Whether its collusion in the FOREX market, in the commodities market, collusion in bidding on LBO business, or gambling with the nation's finances/future in a seven hundred plus trillion swaps and derivatives market, or a HFT rigged stock market and dark pools.... Senator Warren has been fighting pathological malfeasance and perpetual fraud, since well before the 2008 financial crisis began.  The expense and costs of Wall Street's grand larceny have been passed onto the average U.S. citizen and investors in the form of bailouts, massive Federal debt, higher commodity prices, a depressed economy, a lousy jobs market, and headline inflation – for years and likely, the decade to come.  

Moreover, Warren would be the candidate most likely to do something about it.  She's smart, ethical, and would not look the other way, and that puts “the fear” into the Street (Or as President Obama told Senator Warren, "You make them very nervous.")  

Is there any greater endorsement?  

The irony is the public would likely return to Wall Street investments, and the stock market, in droves under a Warren Administration, if they knew the stock market wasn't rigged.

A President Warren would actually be the best thing that ever happened to Wall Street.


Ironically, the Tea Party, before it was co-opted by the Koch brothers and assorted  billionaires, was formed in direct response to the revulsion the GOP elicited, when Republicans and Government $achs repeatedly bailed out Wall Street.  Mr. Paul, presumably, and many libertarians state that they are pro-free market; and therefore, that does not make Mr. Paul, or libertarians, a natural ally of big business and the Wall Street cartel, who are perennially in bed with Federal and State governments, in our crony economy.  

That being said, the concern I have with libertarians is that their revulsion for big government all too often does not translate into revulsion for monopolies and cartels (which after all, are creatures of the state).  Government does indeed have an important role to play in a capitalist society.  As acknowledged by both Messrs. Smith and Hayek (free market deities) that role is to set and establish moral rules of the capitalist road, and the rule of law, which within businesses are to operate.  The morality play for capitalism is that it is the best provider of goods and services for the American public, and used to do pretty well at job creation.  Which is the antithesis of what capitalism has become in America, as crony capitalism is now dominated by cartels, monopolies, and a bunch of Robber Barrons - who want to get rich at the expense of everyone else (citizen, taxpayer, employee, would-be employees, students, consumers, stockholders, and small business owners…  did I miss anybody?).

Government is not there to be co-opted, paid to look the other way, aid in a rigged system, or to create barriers to entry, or starved of regulatory funding, which is exactly what the GOP and Dems have allowed our crony economy/government to become.

In the plutocracy’s/bankocracy’s rush to place laissez faire economics before all, I'm not, entirely, sure we can count on Mr. Paul, or libertarians, to save us from the next Wall Street generated calamity.  If the Wall Street cartel continues unfettered, they’ll take this country and the global economy down, and everyone in it.  And but for extraordinary measures, and government intervention, the banks damn near pulled it off in 2008.


The Federal Reserve already has us floating along in yet another bubble, generated by quantitative easing and interest rate suppression.

On this issue, I lean Warren, but would very much like to hear more from Mr. Paul.
 

Ironically, the Clintons, alleged "liberals," played a huge role in spawning the 2008 financial crisis with the aforementioned swaps and derivatives dereg, and Glass-Steagall abolition.  Way to go!  And guess what?  Dodd-Frank is laughable in its ability to prevent the next crisis, and Glass-Steagall has not been reinstated.

Issue Four:  Jobs and the Economy

One might conclude from the facts that Mrs. Clinton is for any billionaire, or any corporation, wealthy enough to pay her, which means the average person doesn't factor into her political calculus.  Mr. Clinton, as incredibly bright and as politically sophisticated as he is, recently stated that the issue in America is not “inequality,” but rather, helping the middle-class.  Which just goes to show, not only has Mr. Clinton missed the boat, but he’s gone over to the other side and is a full fledged plutocratic member.  Contrary to what Mr. Clinton would lead us to believe, these two issues, inequality and helping the middle-class, are inextricably linked.

Elizabeth Warren understands that rapacious Wall Street banking, Shadow Banking, and Private Equity industries, kills jobs and opportunity as do cartels and monopolies.  These entities are a huge tax/economic drag upon our society (via monopolistic profits, leveraging up and bankrupting previously financially healthy companies for executive enrichment, and through tax avoidance... just to name a couple of examples), and they absolutely crush opportunity and innovation, via globalization, layoffs, and reductions in R&D spending.   

Senator Warren might even enforce the Sherman Anti-Trust Act, the law of the land, which would create jobs and opportunity immediately, by smashing venal and greedy cartels and monopolies.  Comcast and AT&T, for some reason, immediately come to mind.

Mr. Paul gets that the GOP has to change, and that in his words the GOP can no longer be ruled by rich, old, white men.  Truly, with his vision of inclusiveness, Mr. Paul is the future of the Republican Party, if the Party is to have a future.  That said, many of us would like to know more about these three politicians plans to bring this nation back, economically.  Mr. Paul knows that the Fed's trickle down monetary policy, and hopefully, he knows our trickle down tax-code, are not the answer.  The plutocracy, and the GOP establishment owned by billionaires, have had their way for thirty-plus years, and have failed this nation, while enriching themselves.

Note, for sake of time, I didn’t touch on these politicians' views on other key issues, such as: immigration; campaign finance reform (and a possible constitutional amendment to rein in the billionaires and SCOTUS); the record rates of incarceration in this country for victimless crimes (designed to disenfranchise a whole class of citizens); or the environment.  Give me time.



There’s a great deal of talk these days about obvious distractions, such as Iraq, Benghazi, and the failure of Imperial America to “man-up” and take care of our Empire (code for, let’s start another war).  All of which are convenient distractions from the real issues at hand, and that most politicians don’t have the cojones or ovaries to address: Namely, how to rein in billionaires, and monopolistic corporations, from looting the land, eviscerating the remnants of the middle-class, overthrowing our democracy with unlimited campaign contributions, and dodge paying billions in taxes!

How indeed.

Don’t count on a President Clinton, Trois, to act on these issues.  The Clinton’s, once occupiers of a humble Arkansas governor’s mansion, have moved up in the world and have come a long way.  God bless ‘em for that.   Why should we begrudge them their success, achieved through a rigged economy they helped create?

Clearly, the Clintons are not the answer to what ails the U.S., today.

Mrs. Warren is shrewd.  She should not announce her candidacy, if she wants to run, until after the 2014 midterms.  Until then, let Hillary talk, frequently and often.

As for Mr. Paul, the GOP's greatest hope, remember what happened in the Republican primaries in 2012.  It was an absolute brawl, fiasco, and a GOP establishment bloodletting on a monumental scale.  Your conclusions, Mr. Paul, are often 100% correct, but might your cause be better served if you were to - at times - wrap your libertarian beliefs, values and solutions in more mainstream arguments, ready-made for mass-consumption (it requires a little thought, but it can be done, and the American public is ready for you).  Don’t reject your father’s core values, as much you will be pressured by the GOP establishment to do so.  Unfortunately, at some point, you will likely have to pander to an ultra-socially conservative Christian base to some degree, in order to get the GOP nod.  In 20 years, these folks will be gone, but today, you’ll have to deal with them. 

Deal with them, however, you must…. Just be sure that the arguments you use to get the Republican nomination are not turned against you in the general election.  That thankfully, was Mr. Romney’s downfall.  Some of my readers will attack my support of Mr. Paul as hypocritical because I often argue from the center-left and have knocked the Tea Party in more than a few columns, but Mr. Paul is both inspiring and certainly a cut above most Tea Party candidates.  To date, I detect NO racism or xenophobia in this man.  Quite the opposite.

A President Warren or President Paul would be a wonderful thing.  For Liberals, with a President Warren, you get the whole agenda, and with a President Paul, Libertarian, you get three-quarters of the same Warren outcomes, but via an entirely different logic.  In fact with a gerrymandered congress not going away anytime soon, Mr. Paul might actually get more legislation passed.  A President Warren would likely have to use executive orders to carry out her agenda, which is not a bad thing.

For Libertarians, Mr. Paul is the future of the GOP, but a President Elizabeth Warren would be the next best thing.  Don’t forget that.  If your state allows crossover voting, strongly consider switching over in the primaries to put these two into play.  It may even be a strategic political play to cross political parties in 2016, and re-register, in order to get these two nominated. 

Call it “The Anti- Hillary/Anti - Establishment” vote.

Almost anything is better than another status quo, establishment candidate, like Madame Hillary Clinton…. An establishment that ran this country into the ground, repeatedly, for the enrichment of a few and at the expense of many.  

Mrs. Clinton has the next two and half years to convince us otherwise.


Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2014

Saturday, June 14, 2014

The Simple Economics and Math in Mr. Cantor’s Defeat….


The Simple Economics and Math in Mr. Cantor’s Defeat….

By J.M. Hamilton (6-14-14)

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor suffered a stunning upset this week from Republican outsider David Brat.  Mr. Brat ran on opposition to crony/insider capitalism, and against immigration reform.  Is there a lesson here for establishment democrats, who are also acolytes and devotees of the same flow of funds coming from commercial interests and commercial interest lobbyist?  

Here then are some simple economics and math equations to ponder.

Equation A:  Bank Bailouts

Congress supported repeated Bank Bailout(s), plus a

Reinvigorated mortgage securitization market, funded by GSEs and the FED, equals

Failure to refinance homes and failure to provide debt forgiveness, and millions of homes owners still upside down on mortgages, equals

Less discretionary income, less aggregate demand, and the lack of a universal rebound in the housing recovery, equals

Fewer jobs and opportunity, and the inability of labor to relocate.

Equation B:  FED Policy

Congress supported bank-centric FED policy, plus

Interest Rate Suppression and Quantitative Easing, equals

Political Cover for Politicians and a Stagnant Economy (benefiting the financial elite to the exclusion of Main Street), equals

Fewer jobs and opportunity (In short, the lost Japanese Decade(s), visited upon America)

Equation C:  Support for Private Equity, M&A, and Monopolies

Congress’ blind support for PE, M&A, and Cartel and monopolistic mergers, equals

Globalization, highly leveraged firms (teetering on bankruptcy), pink slips, temp labor, stagnant wages and a stagnant economy, and lower top line growth, equals

Fewer jobs and opportunity.

Equation D:  Tax Policy, or the Lack thereof

Congress continues to support tax loopholes/dodges that favor the rich equals,

Higher taxes for the 99%, equals

Less discretionary spending, on top of already stagnant wages, equals

Lower aggregate demand and lower top line growth, equals

You guessed it, Fewer jobs and opportunity.

Equation E:  Rising Xenophobia

Congress’ unyielding support for equations A + B + C + D (the Crony Economy) equals

Fewer jobs and opportunity, equals

Fear, equals

Rising Xenophobia, Racism and Political Extremism, equals

Mr. Cantor – unceremoniously – hitting the streets, and not a moment too soon.


Good bye Mr. Cantor, you aren’t the first, and hopefully, you won’t be the last. 

Populism is here to stay, as Mrs. Clinton is about to learn, if Mrs. Warren decides to run.

In a salute to Mr. James Carville: It’s all about the jobs, stupid! 

That is to say, bring back opportunity, by reversing some of the equations above, and we are likely to see: More jobs, less fear, more racial tolerance, and more polite political discourse.

Don’t forget failure to pass immigration reform will ultimately end the GOP (double-click this link for a picture worth a thousand words).

P.S. 
Missing from the equation above is the deleterious effect “financial engineering” has on jobs and the economy, so that earnings per share and executive compensation can be boosted.  Separately, two failed nation-building exercises did much to enrich the MIC, but left the nation’s finances in poor condition.  These wars were costly, resolved nothing, and as result, the government finances are not where they should be to help offset the reduction in private sector spending, during these troubled economic times.  

Both financial engineering and wars are strongly supported by Congress, and destroy jobs and opportunity.


Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2014
 

Friday, June 13, 2014

Rakoff


Some two and a half years later (because that's how lawyers and judges often operate), Judge Rakoff has been overruled on the Citigroup/SEC deal, but remains 100% Correct… which goes to show and as many have learned since 2008: What is often times “legal” is in many instances amoral and “criminal" (malum in se).

Fear not Judge Rakoff, you may have lost this battle, but your arguments are winning the war.  The U.S. government now charges banks with crimes, and the penalties are now running well into the billions.



A Tsunami of Cover-ups and Lies

“As Ferdinand Pecora, the Depression-era prosecutor, is supposed to have said of the events leading to the Wall Street crash of 1929: Pitch darkness was among the bankers’ stoutest allies.”  - Gretchen Morgenson – NY TIMES

By J.M. Hamilton (12-4-11)

In a land where back room dealing, and double dealing, in government, banking, and many other facets of our lives, has become the norm, Judge Rakoff’s position on the Citigroup/SEC deal was a breath of fresh air.

The Judge’s position, unfortunately, would appear to be – by current standards – anachronistic.  Mr. Rakoff’s appears to be standing against the tide of history, more akin to a tsunami of cover ups and lies, and yelling 


Please recall Judge Rakoff, a Federal Judge, was supposed to rubber-stamp a deal between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Citigroup, a bank that has been bailed out by the U.S. taxpayer, ad nausem.   In fact last I checked the U.S. government still holds a substantive stake in Citigroup, as a result of the bank’s failure in 2008.  The “deal” was Citigroup would cough up just north of a quarter billion dollars, and its role in selling, possibly, fraudulent security products, like derivatives and CDOs during the height of the financial crisis, would vanish w/out any admission of responsibility or wrong doing.

How convenient.   

And yet this is the norm in our two tiered justice system, where the public deals with one set of courts, and banks get fast track justice with no trial, relatively light fines, and where the fines, themselves, are considered a cost of doing business.   Americans, of course, have become numb to Wall Street’s recidivist activities.  And so for Judge Rakoff to say “no more,” was truly exceptional.

We can see why the Judge’s behavior was novel, almost rebellious: the Wall Street cartel has co-opted our government, regulators, our judicial system, rating agencies, and our laws and law making.  Our opaque accounting system is laughable, when we consider how derivatives and swap are not accounted for in financial statements (often only receiving a footnote); and Repos – an accounting maneuver/derivative product that helped bring down MF Global (not to mention Lehman), and with it possibly a billion plus in client money disappearing – are an all too common practice.

Granted Judge Rakoff’s decision could possibly mean more trials and the SEC spending more time proving its case against the major banks – at a time when, as recently noted by Arthur Levitt on Bloomberg Radio (Hosted by Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt), Republicans are starving the organization of money and funds.   Mr. Levitt is the SEC’s former chairman.  The Republicans, lap dog of Wall Street, and advocate and stander bearer for the one percent, quite possibly may believe they are doing “god’s work,” by supporting a monopolistic cartel and restraining government agencies, like the SEC.  However, the SEC is the first, and often only, line of defense against the predatory Wall Street oligopoly, in the protection of ordinary Americans, investors, business – both big and small, and of course, the government, itself.

But can you hardly blame the Republicans?  With all that money coming their way from Wall Street, and presidential candidate Romney meeting with Jamie Dimon,  (Mr. Romney, himself making his bones on Wall Street with private equity’s Bain Capital), why not perpetuate crony capitalism and crony democracy?   After all, and gee-whiz, Wall Street paid back its TARP loans with interest….isn’t it time to get off the cartel’s back?

And therein lies the problem, because as much as Republicans would like to wish away the financial crisis of 2008, and assure us that the banks’ have paid back the U.S. taxpayer in full, quite the opposite has in fact happened.   The Banks, who have received 7.0 plus trillion in handouts and government benefits, as reported by Bloomberg last week (that’s half of U.S. GDP), have not paid for the damage they have caused to the real estate market (the cornerstone of life savings and equity for many Americans), the economy, nor for their share of the fiscal mess our government and economy is in.

Not by a fraction.

Republicans are often portrayed as being unfeeling, uncaring, and against the welfare state… that paradigm does not hold up, however, when the welfare is gifted to the Republican Party’s core constituency, the one percent.

So for Judge Rakoff to shine a bright light of truth on an unacceptable practice, tantamount to a banking whitewash and cover-up, was both brave and the kind of iconoclastic practice Americans need to see more of, in both business and government.

Some might call Judge Rakoff a bully.  I call the Judge a hero.

In the land where who you know and one’s connections, as often as not trumps the truth, Judge Rakoff’s act was a singularly courageous event.   

Kudos and accolades to Judge Rakoff!

Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2014