Saturday, March 5, 2016

Everything is Awesome…



Everything is Awesome…

“As a result of this negative drumbeat, many Americans now believe that their children will not live as well as they themselves do,” Buffett wrote. “That view is dead wrong: The babies being born in America today are the luckiest crop in history.”

-       Bloomberg Business News, Buffett Fires Lucky-to-Be-American Letter at Politicians

By J.M. Hamilton (3-5-2016)

Cue the happy music, perhaps the Lego Movie theme song, Everything is Awesome, is most appropriate…

For Rex Buffettus (aka Mr. Warren Buffett) has descended from Omaha’s Olympian heights to let us mere mortals know that all is right with the world, particularly America and the American economy. 

Enough with the doom-saying politicians the multi-billionaire opined in the release of Berkshire Hathaway’s annual report, and in subsequent interviews (presumably taking aim at the wildly popular – and populist - presidential candidates, Messrs. Sanders & Trump).  And shucks, I guess when Berkshire turned in a record year – all is right in the world, owned & operated by Plutocrat, Inc. 

Per the Guardian:  The Omaha, Nebraska-based company reported a record full-year profit of $24.08bn, up 21%, while operating profit rose 5% to a record $17.36bn. Fourth quarter profit was up 32%, and operating profit rose a larger-than-expected 18%.

Nice.  Very nice. 

One supposes – when you’re a billionaire – and the entire economy is rigged in your favor, and you own the Congress, and presidential candidates and Presidents… it’s all good.  Best to quash populist outrage lifting up presidential candidates, Sanders & Trump, and spread the word, America is purring like a well oiled machine… just let us billionaires continue run things and make record profits.  And so the propaganda campaign continues -unabated, as does Mr. Buffet’s support for presidential candidate Clinton, and before that, President Obama.

There’s just one problem.  The fairy tale Mr. Buffet is spouting isn’t true, and the candidates and populist politicians he decries are popular for a very good reason.  The American public is many things, but they are not stupid; the American public knows they have been taken for a ride by the likes of Mr. Buffett and the billionaire class, and they and their children have suffered, and will continue to suffer for it.  Establishment candidates, particularly the GOP, and Ms. Clinton too, are under fire as never before.  Indeed the establishment itself is under fire for running this country right into the ground.

Here’s some inconvenient facts, Mr. Buffett, and friends, would like for us to ignore:

Depending upon what statistics you go by, somewhere between one in four and one in five American children are born into, and exist, in poverty.

Over the last seven years the poverty rate has doubled, per Mr. Dividovitz in a recent Bloomberg Surveillance interview with Mr. Tom Keene.

The number of food stamp recipients has exceeded 45 million Americans four years running, according to the Department of Agriculture.  For the math challenged that’s somewhere between one and ten and one in fifteen Americans, whom are either the working poor - or the unemployed - who are dependent upon government assistance just to survive.

U6, which not only tallies up the government’s official unemployment statistic, but also includes underemployment, and those who have given up looking for employment, has been 10%, and often considerably higher, for much of President Obama’s two terms in office.  President Obama inherited this mess, but many of the President’s pro-plutocratic policies did little to ameliorate these high unemployment conditions.  In short, President Obama was too busy adopting – or surrendering to - economic, trade, regulatory, and tax policies that benefited his wealthy campaign contributors.  Administration policies that are all too often antithetical to the interests of the American people. 

Wages have been stagnating in this country since the ‘90s.  This is by no accident, blame:  M&A, private equity, the financial crisis created by Wall St. banks, cartels and monopolies, free trade agreements, globalization, automation, robotics, and a feckless Congress, run by owned politicians.

Wage and wealth inequality are at highs not seen, since the last Gilded Age.  Many have cited the statistic that 99% of all new income in our society is going to the 1%, and Mr. Buffett wonders why Messrs. Sanders and Trump are very popular.

Yup, per the folksy, grandfatherly, Mr. Buffet – the smiley face of crony-capitalism - everything is just peachy keen, and indeed, Awesome.  Get out those pom-poms Mr. Buffett and cheer a little louder and we just might believe you.  NOT. 

At the end of the day, Mr. Buffett is a hypocrite.  Where most billionaires wisely live in the shadows – many eschew the limelight for very good reason – Mr. Buffett has taken it upon himself to be the yell-leader, not for capitalism, but crony- capitalism.   That dichotomy is very important, because capitalism – when actually practiced – is market driven, w/ necessary government intervention.  Government intervention, when appropriately applied, insures: competition in the market place; strong aggregate demand, via fair wages and benefits paid to American workers; and consumers and employees benefit from many competing entrants/businesses into the market place, keeping prices in check. 

On the other hand, crony-capitalism, whom Mr. Buffett is the godfather of, is the antithesis of capitalism or the anti-capitalism.  Crony-capitalism is in bed with government, in fact - owns government, and seeks: monopoly and monopolist pricing concessions; it advocates top-down free trade agreements that exploit low wage workers - globally, to the detriment of American workers; crony-capitalism exploits tax policy for its own ends, leaving the 99% to pick up the tax tab; it engages in regulatory capture so that businesses' social costs are picked up by the taxpayer and society, and it loves rigged courts; and crony-capitalism oversees the redistribution of wealth – via the aforementioned, and through the Federal Reserve – from the 99% to the 1%.

As Mr. Buffett once infamously noted:  Class warfare is practiced in America, and my side (aka the Billionaire Class) won.  J.M.H. has taken on Mr. Buffett’s hypocrisy before, read here and here.

Mr. Berkshire Hathaway’s special blend of fiction is worth revisiting and expanding upon, because if our elected officials truly want to turn this economy around (or prevent a political revolution), than here’s a brief tutorial(Note, some of these points are duplicated from my write up of last year, entitled: False Gods)

1)   Mr. Buffett has been said to lament the tax rates he and other plutocrats pay (which are often non-existent to exceptionally low), versus the tax rates, say his secretary pays.  But then we learn that Mr. Buffett helped finance Burger King’s recent tax inversion or tax avoidance scheme.  My guess is this is just the tip of the iceberg in Berkshire’s efforts to keep their conglomerates effective tax rate well below his secretary’s tax rate.

2)   Mr. Buffett said that the plutocracy has been engaged in class warfare against the poor and the middle class for sometime, and that his side won.  And yet, if anything, Berkshire Hathaway’s lobbying efforts have picked up steam, particularly under the Obama Administration.  Looks like Berkshire’s class warfare is not about to let up anytime soon.

3)   Mr. Buffet has called the Federal Reserve the greatest hedge fund around.  Mr. Buffet would know, since he and his companies have been one of the largest beneficiaries of the Fed’s actions.  Actions that have done little to turn the economy around, and have harmed the middle class.

4)   Warren has called derivatives and swaps financial weapons of mass destruction.  And yet, Mr. Buffett’s companies play with these weapons and have profited from them immensely; these weapons are also largely reinsured by the American Public (meaning the taxpayer does not profit from these instruments of mass destruction, but is called upon to pick up the pieces, when they go off – see the 2008 financial crisis.)

5)   Many of the monopolies and oligopolies Mr. Buffet’s conglomerate holds are able to make exceptional amounts of money, because the products are well known, and often enjoy relatively inelastic demand.  Meaning Mr. Buffett can set price.  In such a market, it does little harm to Mr. Buffett’s profits, and certainly less harm to the businesses themselves, to pay his employees a living wage.  And yet, Mr. Buffett has been quoted recently as stating that higher minimum wages will harm the working poor.  His statist solution: Have our bankrupt federal government expand the tax credit for the working poor.  In this manner, Mr. Buffet’s monopolistic profits go untouched, and the working poor continue to be the State's wards.

6)  In Berkshire’s most recent financial report, Mr. Buffett is said to have spent 10% of his cover letter defending the business practices of 3G.  3G is the private equity firm that gutted takeover acquisition, Heinz’, labor pool (despite up front assurances that said labor gutting would not transpire).  Mr. Buffett also defended his 3G partnership with Clayton Homes.  Clayton Homes is known for engaging in predatory lending practices, generally aimed at defrauding minorities.  3G’s tax inversion deal, between Burger King and Canada’s Tim Horton, was in part financed by Mr. Buffett.   Wall St. banks, private equity, and hedge funds are among the top dangers to America and Americans today, and Berkshire Hathaway is in deep with these segments, either holding stock and/or partnering with said institutions.

7)  Mr. Buffet expresses concerns about climate change in his annual report, and pushes back on calls for Berkshire to elaborate on how climate change would impact his insurance empire.  But Mr. Buffett may have other reasons for pushing back on calls for expanding upon the risks climate change poses (like protecting some of his investments that are directly correlated with contributing to the destruction of the planet). Among them:  Mr. Buffett’s choo-choo, BNSF, hauls enough coal per annum to supply electricity to one in ten U.S. homes; and Mr. Buffett, who has a controlling interest in an outdated NV utility, has lobbied hard to remove solar subsidies for NV homeowners.  Having failed before, Warren recently decided to take another plunge into Big Oil.  That’s mighty climate friendly of Mr. Buffett, and highly self-serving.

8)  There’s another reason why Mr. Buffett wants us to believe the economy is going very well for us all, and her name is Ms. Hillary Clinton.  His support for Ms. Clinton means a third Obama term, and the continuation of government, tax, regulatory, and free trade policies that have so richly benefited Berkshire Hathaway.  The Clintons and Obama have been on the receiving end of ramped up Berkshire campaign contributions, and the Clinton Foundation, directly or indirectly, has received money from Mr. Buffet’s family.  Hillary is so politically malleable, and has such a long history of saying one thing and doing another, that she provides the perfect political front for Berkshire’s business interests.  



However, it is Ms. Clinton's, indeed the entire political establishment's, malleability and double dealing against the American people (where the ends – personal enrichment - always justify the means – screwing Americans over) that has led to the political upheaval that Mr. Buffett now decries.  


The billionaire class has acted with preternatural greed, and, perhaps intentionally or unintentionally, perfected malice towards the American people.  Responsible billionaires would police themselves up, before this political revolution takes a nasty turn for the worse.

My guess is… it’s too late.  Many Americans have had enough of billionaires, and more Americans have had enough of class warfare perpetrated by billionaires.   Now, it will take a miracle for a GOP establishment candidate to receive the nomination; and Ms. Clinton’s nomination, if it happens, is likely to be corseted in ignominy and continuous investigations.

Go team, Buffett!  Yeah.

Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2016

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Four More Years & the Audacity of Fear…


Four More Years & the Audacity of Fear…

There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask, “Why?”  I dream of things that never were, and ask, “Why not?” 

 -Robert Kennedy, by way of George Bernard Shaw

By J.M. Hamilton (2-23-2016)

What does it say when the majority of Democrats & Independents -voting in Democratic primaries - trust Senator Sanders by a 75% margin, or greater, over front runner Madame Hillary Clinton?  Again and again, in poll after poll, nobody trusts Hillary.  When it comes to honesty and truth, she even falls below the GOP field. 

How low can one go?  How low indeed.

But what’s worse?  Candidate Clinton, or the voters who turn out for her, based upon the fear that they’ll never get another opportunity to vote for another woman candidate?  Or voters who turn out for Ms. Clinton based upon the fear that she’s more electable, despite having no fewer than three investigations swirling around her campaign (and despite the fact, Hillary consistently fairs worse in polling against the GOP field, than Senator Sanders)? 

Trust me, this is the just the tip of the iceberg…. Because as anybody who lived through the 90s as a sentient adult knows, the Clintons are perennially under investigation.  Investigations will follow her, and descend upon her, IF she enters the White House and the nation will suffer for it.  By the end of Mr. Clinton’s second term, the nation breathed a collective sigh of relief that the Clintons were finally leaving town, but not before they attempted to steal everything that wasn’t nailed down at the White House.

Never mind that Ms. Clinton has co-opted Senator Sanders’ campaign speech, and in the same breath has the insincerity to say that the Senator is a single issue candidate and his proposal(s) are unachievable. 

Disingenuous?  Cynical?  No - Clintonian politics, per the usual.

Never mind that Mr. and Mrs. Clinton’s have done untold damages to Black Americans by supporting NAFTA and criminal penalties that shipped jobs offshore and incarcerated Black Americans in record numbers, respectively.  Forget that the Clintons gutted the safety net that so many Americans depend upon.  Avert your eyes as Hillary promises to double-down on the Obama years.  President Obama, who even now, threatens to export more U.S. jobs offshore with free trade agreements in Asia and in Europe.

What a wonderful way to create a base for the Democratic party:  Export all the jobs offshore, and keep citizens cowed and dependent upon the state.   The audacity of hope? 

No.  Wrong.  This is the audacity of fear.

Despite having co-opted Senator Sanders’ populist drive (or what Clinton insiders call triangulation), the Clintons say the Senator is a dreamer, and that we should preserve the establishment that has set this nation ablaze.  How perfectly self-serving, because the Clintons define the establishment.  The crony back room deals, the indentured servitude of the 99% to the billionaire class & Wall St., and above all the politics of fear.  Here’s a candidate who depends upon the working class and the poor to get elected, and then acts in ways that are completely inimical to their interests; we expect that from GOP candidates, and perhaps that’s why Ms. Clinton is GOP-Lite.

There’s no irony here at all folks… one of Hillary’s primary arguments against Senator Sanders is to play the fear card, and scream that all will be lost, if she – and only she – is not elected to the nation’s highest office: civil rights, gay marriage, reproductive rights, and Obamacare. 

All will be lost, if we do not elect, deus ex machina, Hillary Clinton.

Who else plays the fear card?  In fact, who plays it better than anyone else, and has in fact abused it with Southern Whites, since Richard Nixon?   That’s right, the Republican Party, the Party of FearThe Clintons are tearing a page right out of the GOP machine’s playbook.  This is nothing new, the Clinton’s have been tearing pages out of the GOP playbook for some time: pandering to the MIC and the surveillance state; cutting the social safety net; the aforementioned support for free trade and the criminal justice industrial complex; and pandering to Wall Street, which destroyed the U.S. economy and played no small role in bankrupting the U.S.

Hillary, on one level is correct.  We should be afraid, very afraid… of her, and her candidacy.  If she is nominated, all her populist speeches will likely end within a matter of hours, and she will pivot and turn hard right to take on whatever Republican challenger she may face in the Fall…. Just like Bill did in ’96, when he hired arch, right-wing, Senator Jesse Helms’ campaign advisor, Dick Morris.





Of course, not everybody is afraid.  The Nation’s youth aren’t afraid, who flock to Senator Sanders in droves.  Hispanics in Nevada are not afraid, who turned out for Senator Sanders by a greater than 7% margin.  And independent voters – who absolutely love Senator Sanders – are clearly not afraid.  There’s two classes of voters, however, who are afraid, very afraid, and are buying into Hillary’s fear campaign.

The Elderly and Black Americans. 

It goes w/out saying that the elderly - the least educated Americans, demographically – are clinging to their Social Security and Medicare, like Republicans cling to their guns and Bibles.  They don’t want change, and they sure as hell don’t want a political revolution; they just want to be left alone.  As group, the elderly and older baby-boomers (aka The Me Generation), many are huge Hillary supporters.  Incremental change, glacial change, it’s all good… just don’t screw with their AARP, Metamucil, or government benefits.  Given the Clinton’s track record in the 90s of gutting government aid for the poorest of Americans, seniors are the ones that should be the most worried about the entitlements that make up more than 50% of the Federal budget. 

The Establishment and the wealthy have been trying to privatize and reduce these programs, Social Security & Medicare, for decades, and if anyone can do it, it’s the Clintons (who seemingly can never do enough for their friends in high places – while giving those in need the shaft).  Clintonian policies from the 90s have played a highly significant role in the wage and wealth inequality chasm, that gapes like the Grand Canyon in this country today.

As for Black Americans, the only other group that hasn’t turned out for Senator Sanders so far, they have every reason to be afraid.  This group has been systematically beaten down in this country for centuries:  slavery; Jim Crow; segregation; voter repression laws; mass incarceration; inhuman experiments conducted by the Federal government; systemic bigotry and racism; the CIA standing by, while crack cocaine was introduced into the black community in Southern California in the mid-eighties; gunned down by the local P.D., and on and on.  Black Americans, more than any other Americans, have every reason to be afraid.

Voting for the Democratic candidate, who has a proven track record of discarding the poor and underprivileged, while helping out their rich buddies, a la the Clintons, seemingly, is not the way to go.

And that’s what it means to be beaten down so hard that you no longer dare to dream, dare to hope.  One puts their blinders on, forgets about their dreams and desires, and lives a pain filled existence.  Even when one of your own enters the White House, and he’s still catering to the wealthy elite, by shipping America’s jobs offshore (so that Obama’s wealthy supporters can grow richer still).  Instead, presumably, one buys into Hillary’s fear, clings to food stamps, and lives hand to mouth, with low expectations and fewer dreams.
The audacity of fear, served up against Black Americans daily; and cynically manipulated by the Clintons, who have again and again acted against the interests of Black citizens.

America can’t afford four more years of President Obama’s Administration that Hillary Clinton is offering up.  The nation is bankrupt.  The Wall Street and the financial elite bailed out on the backs of the middle class and the poor, and the elite scream for austerity for everyone else.  A Deep State, the MIC and a Surveillance State, that is completely out of control.   A government that has been privatized, and controlled by an Oligarchy.  Endless foreign wars… a GOP Congress that is owned and obstructs all forms of progress, as a matter of policy, and is addicted to trickle-down economics.  A Wall Street cartel, indeed a nation of cartels, which squeezes the poor and the middle class with monopolistic pricing power.  And a Federal Reserve that prints money to keep the nation afloat, and finance tax cuts for the wealthy.

To be fair, President Obama didn’t start these trends, but he hasn’t done enough to fight this descent into hell, either.

This nation has been eviscerated by the likes of the Clintons, their elite supporters, and the politics of fear.  President Obama, while sometimes almost imperceptibly skewing liberal, has all too often played a role in extending Clintonian/GOP policies.

Senator Sanders offers more than hope, he offers real change.  His odds of getting his proposals through Congress are no greater, and certainly no less, than Hillary’s; but at least we know he will fight for the American people, in a honest and truthful manner.  (The Clintons will throw in w/ the GOP, and call it progress.  It says volumes when plutocrat, Charles Koch, begins to ape Senator Sanders' campaign message.)

However, in order to achieve the White House, and for the good of the nation, the Senator is going to have to stop being a gentlemen and start being a politician.  

No more soft shoe, Senator.  It’s time to tap dance on Hillary and the Democratic Establishment, Bronx style.


Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2016

Monday, February 15, 2016

Stop the Federal Reserve Charade…



Stop the Federal Reserve Charade…

Fischer: "There is not a lot of chance that monetary policy will fix inequality.”  Says education, state, local govt. etc. have that role.
Posted on Twitter: 2-1-2016  

Vonnie Quinn@VonnieQuinn of Bloomberg News

By J.M. Hamilton  (2-16-2016)

Some have argued the greatest lie ever told was Satan’s ability to convince the world that he did not exist.  If that’s so, the second greatest lie ever told was that the Federal Reserve’s (aka the Fed’s) mandate includes maximum employment.  Perhaps, the third greatest lie is that the Federal Reserve mitigates boom/bust cycles, and is often unaware of its role in bubble formation within the economy. 

As this blog has pointed out before, the Federal Reserve really serves two masters, the Wall Street banks, and the stock market.   Everything else is white noise.   A few years ago in acknowledgement of its failure to help everyday Americans, Fed members began donating to charities.   The estimable Vonnie Quinn (a Bloomberg news anchor), again, punctured the Fed’s dual mandate façade with a tweet quoting Mr. Stanley Fischer, the number two man at the Federal Reserve.

In the lead quote above, Mr. Fischer basically, acknowledges the obvious:  that monetary policy cannot fix the key economic problem of our times, (wage & wealth) inequality.  In fact, quite the opposite – as presently conducted – the Fed, and global Central Banks, are responsible for a tremendous amount of the wage & wealth inequality in the world.  The Fed by gunning the printing presses, post 2008 Crash, inflated asset prices and the stock market to extraordinary levels, and bailed out the Wall Street banking cartel and the establishment, via quantitative easing, interest rate suppression, transfering toxic assets onto public balance sheets, and a variety of other programs.  The rich grew wealthier, the middle class continued its downward spiral, and the poor became poorer.  And corporate America and multinational C-Suites… well they grew fat through financial engineering, not the least of which includes M&A activity, stock buybacks, and labor cuts.   Financial engineering was financed by the Fed, at record low interest rates.

Perhaps that too, belongs up their in the pantheon of Federal Reserve lies:  The Fed’s extraordinary actions, starting in 2008, were supposed to be temporary in nature; and in essence, were required to provide short term liquidity (aka bailouts) to markets, and a window of opportunity for businesses and individuals to pay down their debt.  Imagine Fed watchers and the business communities surprise when Bloomberg recently published a piece warning of a $29 trillion corporate debt bubble.  A bubble that didn’t go to finance higher employment, higher worker wages, CAPEX, or R&D… no, but a bubble that financed job killing M&A, the formation of opportunity crushing cartels and monopolies, and stock buybacks that merely boost EPS, ROE, and CEO pay.  Buybacks are now so ubiquitous that Bloomberg, via Goldman Sachs, reports that they make up 20% of all trading.

Which goes to my central point, the Fed doesn’t help the American public or the jobs market, instead it holds it back.  Financed by the Fed, M&A kills employment opportunity… and consolidation leads to layoffs, an employer’s job market, and lower pay (factor in globalization, automation, and evolving A.I. and you have a perfect storm against the 99%).  Interest rate suppression, robs retirees, pension funds, mutual funds, and investors of normal market yields and income (yet, one more hit to aggregate demand), and hands it over to the banks, in yet another bailout.  As for the Fed’s stated dual mandate: Rest in peace.

Yet another problem the Fed created in papering over the crisis with a mountain of debt and debt monetization …  both, Republicans and Dems, were let off the hook and not held accountable for their role in the crisis.  Major structural impediments within the economy, such the aforementioned cartels & monopolies, were not addressed (e.g. the Wall Street banking cartel).

So that’s at least four strikes against the Fed:  It aggravates wage & wealth inequality; the Fed creates bubbles and amplifies the boom/bust cycle; America’s Central Bank kills jobs and opportunity by providing highly inexpensive debt for financial engineering and M&A; and it lets our elected officials off the hook, from making hard fiscal and structural economic decisions.

All so that the Establishment can grow richer, Wall St continues its campaign of fraud & graft, and a ginned up stock market can soar. 

Thank you, Henry, Ben, Timmy, and Janet!  (And some wonder why Senator Sanders is in his ascendancy, and giving the Wall Street loving Clintons a run for their money.)

Had the Fed not bailed out the usual suspects, had the establishment landed on its @$$ in 2008, and Wall Street been allowed to fail…. There would have been real financial reform, real structural change, and real jail time for the CEO’s involved.  Without the Fed’s fire hose of liquidity and debt, business leaders would have had to earn income the old fashioned way, through top line growth and the creation of new businesses to compete against our cartel dominated economy (which means labor/the consumer and aggregate demand – aka 70% of the U.S. economy – would have finally, gotten the attention it justly deserves).

Instead, here and now, we are potentially faced with 2008 all over again.   Investors in search of yield loaded up on Co-Cos and junk debt w/ artificially low yields; a derivatives and swaps market that is grossly under-collateralized and remains backstopped by the American taxpayer, still exists and is as dangerous as ever; a Wall Street cartel that is more concentrated and presents an even greater risk management nightmare; and a corporate America that is loaded up to the gills on debt and debt service payments, that could prove crippling if interest rates rise and/or there’s a recession.


And now… are you ready for this, here comes the punch line, the newest financial craze:  Negative yields.  Brought to you by Central Banks around the globe and coming soon….  Yes, my crystal ball says, possibly, coming to America.  Bloomberg reports $7 trillion in government debt at negative yields, globally, is presently in circulation. The concept is simple, the Bank of Japan and other Central Banks, hope that negative yields will force banksters to stop hoarding reserves in, relatively speaking, risk free government debt, and instead loan the money out to businesses, entrepreneurs, and/or take greater risk through alternative financial instruments.

But what negative yields really amount to is yet another backdoor bailout for banks, who recklessly lent money – hand over fist – for corporate M&A, financial engineering, and went long on the oil patch.   There’s that $29 trillion corporate debt hangover, Bloomberg recently mentioned.  Central Banks, and possibly the Fed, may be preemptively attempting to head off the next financial crisis in advance - by running to negative yields.  Much commercial lending is a point or two above LIBOR or some other Central Bank benchmark.   If these benchmark rates sink into negative territory, by the hand of central banksters, the commercial lending rates – or service load on the $29 trillion  - will sink with those benchmarks.  Hence, possibly dissolving, or mitigating, yet another debt bubble created by Central Banks, globally. 

Don’t forget swaps and derivatives, w/ hundreds of trillions in notional value, utilized as insurance and mostly as gambling instruments, are also heavily tied to this corporate debt and wagers in stock indexes.  If the $29 trillion in corporate debt heads south, we could see a calamity unfold in the swaps and derivatives market…. A cascading effect, if you will.  An effect that would prove that Dodd Frank as a regulatory tool, written by Wall Street banks (and subsequently stripped down by Wall Street banks), is a complete and absolute failure.


(Negative yields would not be entirely bad.  With less free interest income from the Fed, Wall Street banks’ earnings would suffer.  With lower ROE and EPS, investors might finally insist upon what our crony government failed to do, and that is break up the Wall Street banking cartel.  Negative yields also means that the Federal government’s debt service load would evaporate on that portion of the debt financed by treasuries sold at negative interest rates; in the long run, negative yields mean more Federal spending, hopefully, to rebuild our infrastructure and to finance free education for our youth, instead of going to debt service payments.  Honestly, there are several positives associated with negative yields, IF channeled correctly.)

Of course, negative yields will harm the American people, namely: savers, pension funds, mutual funds, retirees, and insurance companies (who sometimes rely upon yield to keep insurance rates low and contained).  At negative yields, many Americans and institutions would flee to quality blue chip stocks, and precious metals…. Which conveniently, is whom the Fed really serves, the stock market.  With an election on the horizon, it’s important for the Fed to attempt to juice the markets one more time.  Alas, negative rates maybe too little too late:  China’s debt to GDP ratio is at basket case proportions; emerging markets are in the doldrums with slack demand and excess capacity in the commodities markets; the oil patch that generally generates obscene profits (global bourses are addicted to monopolistic profits) is in disarray; and worst of all, aggregate demand and worker pay were neglected for the last eight years – essentially stagnating, as they were for the proceeding decades. 

Central Banks instead played a game of beggar they neighbor - frequently dropping benchmark rates, in the hopes of stimulating exports, only to see other Central Banks follow suit.  And the result, yet another global debt bubble has arisen, as JMH foretold.  





Surprised(?)…. Given the Fed’s history, none of us should be.

The law of unintended consequences surrounds the United States…. We see it in U.S. foreign policy and with Federal Reserve monetary policy.  In the service of its true masters, Wall Street banks and the stock market…. Anything goes, often to calamitous effect upon the economy and the 99%. 

Had the Fed truly been looking to fulfill its alleged mandate, one of maximum employment back in ’08, it would have placed caveats and conditions on the Wall Street bank bailout(s).  Caveats and conditions like writing down home loans, debt restructuring for consumers, and the write down of interest rates and principal for student debt… all of which would have stimulated aggregate demand, job hiring, and top line growth for businesses. 

Instead, we got the same crony –grossly mismanaged - bailout, headed up by the likes of Mr. Tim Geithner, who just received payback from Wall Street. 


Alas, our Fed is myopic and blind just like its Master… that is to say, the Fed, much like Wall Street, crushes hopes, dreams and national economies - daily. 

The Fed needs very serious reform… and Banksters and insiders need not apply.

Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2016