Friday, November 13, 2015

With friends like these…


With friends like these…
 
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned last year in a leaked classified memo that donors in Saudi Arabia were the "most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide".


By J.M. Hamilton (11-13-15)

The U.S. enjoyed a golden moment at the close of the Cold War to persuade authoritarian dictatorships/allies to embrace democracy and address human rights abuses.  Unfortunately, the U.S. did not seize the day, and the U.S., indeed the world, is paying a very steep price for this failure.   In fact, instead of conducting a virtuous foreign policy, U.S. foreign policy all too often is: reactive; myopic; governed and led by short term commercial interests and gains – via the State Department; and driven by the DOD/MIC, which has a financial interest in long and costly wars.  Endlessly, America ends up backing dictatorships and nefarious regimes, as opposed to seeking out genuine democratic reform and championing human rights.  Even the lip service the U.S. pays to human rights and democratic reform is occurring with less frequency.

My critics will immediately say, there JMH goes again, blaming America first.  But if we take a look at the topic of today’s piece, Saudi Arabia, not only will we discover that our “ally” is repugnant (and operates in ways counter to America’s stated values, as well as, our economic and foreign policy interests); but we will also learn that the current economic and political environment presents a golden opportunity to – once again – seek out genuine reform, from several of the Middle East's nastiest dictatorships.  These dictatorships are not only highly destabilizing to other countries in the region, and throughout the world, but, if current economic and political trends continue, show the potential for revolution from within.

Counter to what our government and friends in the State Department tell the American people, the Royal House of Saud is not our friend, and conducts its economic and foreign affairs in ways that are completely inimical to U.S. and Western Democracies’ interests.  So let’s cover this ground first, before explaining the opportunity before the American people and our leadership.  Namely, let’s spell out just how monstrous the Saudi regime is.

1.   First the Saudis are responsible for spending billions of petrol dollars on terrorism.  So for every dollar Western Democracies spend on Saudi imported oil, some percentage of those dollars is being directed at terrorist attacks against the West and Western interests.  In short, every time you buy imported oil at the pump from the Middle East, you are to some degree financing terrorism against the West.  While there are many reasons America should achieve energy independence, and ultimately seek to eliminate fossil fuel consumption, withdrawing revenue from murderous Middle East regimes should rank high on our list. 
2.   Moreover, eighty percent of the Royal House of Saud’s revenue comes from oil sales, which in turn trickles down through the Saudi economy.  We know that it’s the oil revenue that is financing Saudi funded terrorism.  But don’t take my word for it, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton noted:  Saudi Arabia was the most significant source of funding for Sunni terrorist groups worldwide.
4.   Saudi Arabia, along with other monarchies operating in the Gulf, are responsible for the spread of the most militant brand of Sunni fundamentalist religion throughout the world, known as Wahhabism.
5.   Fifteen of the nineteen 9-11 hijackers were Saudi citizens, as was O.B.L.
6.   While the Middle East monarchies helped fund ISIS/ISIL, thousands of Saudi citizens have gone to fight for this terrorist enterprise.
7.   Due to possession of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, the Saudi’s have leveraged petroleum to make the U.S. and other Western democracies do their bidding.  The Iraq war, as well as economic sanctions against Iran, were of tremendous value to the Saudis, as it kept Iraqi and Iranian oil out of much of the market, which restricted supply and kept the price of OPEC/Saudi oil elevated.  The Saudis made tens of billions – perhaps hundreds of billions - off both the Iraq war and Iranian sanctions.  Some of that money was subsequently used to fund terrorism, and spread Wahhabism.
8.   As a result of the Iraq war, ISIS/ISIL was not only formed, but when it subsequently over-ran Iraq, it was able to scoop up a tremendous amount of U.S. military hardware, as well as, U.S. resources contained within Iraqi banks.  In short, while the oil rich monarchies funded ISIS/ISIL, as well as provided soldiers, the U.S. inadvertently supplied and funded same.
9.   Beyond funding terrorism, the Royal House of Saud operates one of the most repressive governments in the world.  In addition to a police force, the Saudi government also has a religious police force, or Mutaween, which enforces a highly repressive religious law or Sharia law.  Women are treated as something less than chattel.  And Saudi Arabia has the third highest execution rate in the world, behind China and Iran.
10.                 Forty-seven percent of all Saudi executions are for drug related offenses, and most executions are performed by beheading.  And yet, a Saudi prince was recently caught with two tons of drugs in 40 suitcases, attempting to pass through Lebanon, within his private jet.  Another example of the hypocrisy with which the regime operates was on full display recently in Beverly Hills, CA, when another Saudi prince was brought up on charges of assaulting prostitutes.  Witnesses also said the prince was engaging in homosexual acts with his aide.  The crime isn't the homosexual act itself, but that it would be a capital offense w/in the prince's own country.  Apparently a two-tiered justice system, one for the elite and for one for everyone else, is not limited to the U.S.
11.                 And Saudi Arabia is not alone.  Many of these same conditions and issues arise in Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait.  The Middle East monarchies are noted for withholding contracts to Western contractors, if Western governments do not play ball with these despotic regimes wishes and desires.  Whether its overthrowing Egyptian democracy, or sending American men and women to fight wars on the Kingdoms behalf.  When it comes to answering to Saudi and Middle East monarchy demands - historically, Western democracies have often fallen all over themselves.
12.                 Of course, Saudi influence does not stop at the Middle East.  The Kingdom has no fewer than six K Street lobbyist in Washington, including a powerful money man/bundler for the Clinton campaign.  And speaking of Mrs. Clinton, despite her concerns about the Saudis and their funding of terrorism, The Clinton Foundation had zero reservations about taking millions of dollars from the Saudi government.  Obviously, the Saudis are doubling down and counting on a Clinton presidency.
13.                 The U.S. and Britain also arm the Saudis, and their Gulf monarchy friends to the teeth.  But when it comes to actually fighting in the region, you know to defeat the monster the Arab monarchies helped create – ISIS/ISIL, the Saudis are nowhere to be found.
14.                 Economically, the OPEC cartel, with Saudi Arabia as its most powerful member, has held Western democracies’ economies hostage for several decades.  If fact, some economist have argued that every economic down turn, or recession, of the last eight, was proceeded by, or occurred during, an oil price shock or spike.
15.                 In short, when Saudi Arabia isn’t funding terrorism, flying planes into the world trade center, providing fresh recruits for ISIS, oppressing women, spreading fundamentalist Islam, or their princes aren’t running drugs and abusing escorts…. They are busy holding the world economy hostage with a simple turn of OPEC’s oil spigot. 
16.                 With friends like these who needs enemies.  The mass migration out of the Middle East, and into Europe, is in part fueled by Middle East monarchies funding terror.  That, and two very badly botched wars launched by America.
17.                 And despite all this, the U.S. State department recently “welcomed” the Saudis to their new leadership role, that is heading up the U.N. Human Rights counsel.  The State Department is on record as stating:  “We are close allies.”  If there was ever a crossroads between the “experts” in the Washington foreign policy establishment and ordinary Americans, than Saudi Arabia would be the address.  The U.S. reacts and runs around the Middle East, attempting to put out fires that the Saudis and the Monarchy states often play no small role in creating.  But amazingly, the U.S. never gets around to addressing the root cause, the Saudi regime, itself.

But there’s hope.  And unlike the 90s and the tail end of the Cold War, maybe – this time - U.S. leadership won’t blow it.  This hope arrives in the form of increasing U.S. energy independence, an international oil glut, and the price of Brent crude coming in at less than $50 a barrel.  S&P has downgraded the Kingdom’s credit rating, and S&P reports Saudi Arabia’s financial outlook is negative.  Factor in the slowing down of the global economy, and in particular China’s economy (and the resulting lower demand for fossil fuels), and things do not appear to be looking up for Saudi Arabia anytime soon.  In fact, the Royal House of Saud is burning through its hard currency reserves, and is becoming known for paying its bills late.

Other factors that do not bode well for the Kingdom’s future, include, but are not limited to, the growing use of inexpensive renewable energy around the globe (50% of all new power plants in 2014 were renewable energy based), and the increased awareness of the impact dirty fossil fuels are having upon the world and the world’s climate.  The DOD considers climate change to be a national security risk.  Germany provides an excellent example of the oil producer’s fate, as that nation now receives one-third of their energy from renewables.  Arguably, and naturally, there’s is an inverse relationship between the increase in renewables as an energy source, and the consumption of fossil fuels.  And the cost of producing renewable energy is declining all the time. 

Separately, New York’s attorney general has announced an investigation into Exxon Mobil (under the Martin Act), and Exxon’s, alleged, behavior in denying climate change, funding studies denying climate change, while being well aware that climate change existed for several decades.  Some of us are old enough to remember another industry that lied to clients about their product’s toxicity.  Yes, Exxon and Big Oil have the stench of Big Tobacco all over them.

Could lawsuits eventually be brought against the Middle East monarchies?  Martin Act, RICO… who knows, perhaps under environmental law?  The sky is the limit, and AG’s and revenue hungry states have got to be looking at Big Oil and potentially OPEC, and licking their chops.  Perhaps some Saudi princes might eventually end up in The Hague for war crimes?  

Factor in Middle East demographics, such as a large number of younger citizens making up the majority of the population, and the highest global rate of unemployment, and one might argue that these monarchies are sitting on a powder keg.  Stir in a decades-old religious civil war with Iran, and a failed war of attrition in Yemen, and the Saudi’s future looks bleak.  The reality is these monarchies very well may become the Middle East’s next failed states.  (If the Saudi’s abhorrent behavior doesn’t do them in, perhaps their product will?  Last summer, the heat index in parts of Iran and Iraq soared well above 140 degrees.  At the rate climate change is increasing, wars in the Middle East may finally come to an end, because the Middle East may ultimately become uninhabitable.)

And the opportunity for America and Western democracies?  Take full advantage of the situation.  

As the Saudi coffers wither and wane, leverage aid – whether it be economic, foreign policy, humanitarian, or military – for all its worth, to extract real democratic reform, a respect for human rights, and the establishment of a free press.  There’s not a single reason why these regimes should not convert to constitutional monarchies, as a stepping stone to democracy.  The time to establish the roots of democracy, as well as, political parties is now, when the Kingdoms are still relatively stable.  

As we learned in Egypt, the time to set up democratic institutions is not when the crisis, or revolution, is at hand.  The Egyptian people were not well served by Mr. Mubarak, and they will be even less well served by Dictator al-Sisi.  And yet, without pushing for real reform, the U.S. continues to funnel billions in military aid to Egypt.  The MIC and American corporations like it that way.

Of course, America might be in a much better position to push for democratic reform throughout the world, if it cleaned up its own act.  Separating money’s influence from our government, campaign finance reform, term limits, and driving a wedge in the revolving door between government and the private sector have all been discussed in the present presidential election cycle.  Obviously there is much work to do, before this chatter becomes a reality.  Our courtrooms are mired in corruption from the bench; we have the highest incarceration rate in the world, essentially slave labor colonies and the return of Jim Crow; and our family law courts abuse children and families, for lawyer enrichment.  Real reforms need to be enacted here at home, so that America occupies the moral high ground when insisting that these corrupt and crony authoritarian regimes and monarchies reform.  Shutting down K –Street, who represent the Saudis, would be another leap forward for democracy and the American people.

As for candidate Clinton, perhaps the Clinton Foundation should return Saudi donations, and Mr. Podesta should refuse to represent the Kingdom and its lobbying efforts?  What a message that would send: both about Mrs. Clinton’s credibility and sincerity, and it would put the princes on notice that America is not for sale.

No doubt, when it comes to foreign affairs, short-term commercial interest, represented by K Street, will always cry out for the maintenance of the status quo.  After all, quarterly profits demand it.  However, the nature of short term commercial thinking on U.S. foreign policy is that it ends up costing Americans more – so much more – down the road, especially in terms of blood and treasure.  Witness the failed wars in Iraq and Iran, and coming soon, Syria.  


Time for the Saudis and the monarchies in the Middle East to clean up their act, and the U.S. should, verbally, shove them in the correct direction.  Humiliation on the global stage, frequently and often, just might provide a cure.  There’s still time. 

P.S.
The fun doesn't stop in the Middle East.  The U.S. should be pushing China, Turkey, Russia, and Egypt to clean up their act as well; but alas, quarterly profit statements prevent the State Department from raising its voice too loudly.

Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2015

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