How many Americans have really died from COVID-19?

How many Americans have really died from COVID-19?

 

 A new model from the COVID-19 response team at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that coronavirus cases are probably more than 10 times higher than the total tally in many parts of the country. 

 

-       US coronavirus cases are probably 10 times higher than the official numbers, more and more research suggests

 

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration has ordered hospitals to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all Covid-19 patient information to a central database in Washington beginning on Wednesday. The move has alarmed health experts who fear the data will be politicized or withheld from the public.

-       Trump Administration Strips C.D.C. of Control of Coronavirus Data

 

By JM Hamilton (12-12-2020)

 

I was watching CTV News, here in Canada this week, and a guest was on that stated – per the CDC – the number of COVID-19 deaths is likely seven times greater than the government’s official tally.  Simple math, assuming 300,000 reported dead, presently, tells us that the number of American COVID fatalities appears to be closer to 2,100,000. 

 

Of course, this got me scrambling, and if the mortality rate is consistent, what the gentlemen on the news broadcast stated appears to be correct.  For there is story after story on the web, from credible news organizations, confirming that COVID numbers, per the CDC, are grossly underreported.  Read here, here, and here. 

 

Of course, we shouldn’t be entirely surprised… we read a story this week - in the Washington Post - indicating that the State of Florida invaded a scientist’s home for reporting out unflattering COVID data. Florida is run by Republican governor, Ron DeSantis.

 

What we appear to have, in the United States, is Federal & State governments – run by Republicans – who are at war with the truth.  We also know Trump, earlier this Fall, stripped the CDC of COVID data gathering capabilities.  What better way to cloud the lies and incompetence of this Administration’s handling of the plague, than to change the direction of data flow & gathering, mid-pandemic?

 

 

 

 

 

 

And yet despite all of this, we had Republican after Republican playing down the pandemic, doing their billionaire and multinational donors bidding and attempting to keep economies open.  Try as they might, hospitals have begun to overflow again this Fall and business is booming for mortuaries and morgue trucks.  The American economy, inversely correlated w/ the rising body count, is stumbling again.  And given how the government is underreporting COVID fatalities, how good was the economy really doing this Summer?  How real was the strength of the economic rebound reported by the US government?

 

All this brings up other issues, like the moral collapse of American society … where the President and the Business community lie constantly, seemingly without repercussion.  Yes, we can rejoice that Trump will be exiting the White House – not soon enough – on January 20^th (sadly, only to have another liar take his place); but there is the issue at hand, which is Trump – despite everything – received seventy-four million votes.   

 

That’s an amazing quantity of votes in favor of a man responsible for an estimated 2.1 million American dead.  Granted, the US congress also bears responsibility and is equally complicit.  Congress won’t even pass economic aid for unemployed Americans. All this, so that Nike can go on selling sneakers, and the airlines can, attempt, to fly the friendly skies. And Zombie companies can continue to attempt to make interest payments, etc., etc.  Forget the show, the economy must go on.   

 

There’s something else very much a part of America’s moral collapse, as mentioned above… namely, the credibility of US government statistics and economic data.  If we have leaders, from both parties, that are willing to deceive Americans for economic & political gain, costing millions of American lives in the process…  how credible are the government’s economic numbers?  

 

For instance, the Federal Reserve was given $4.0 trillion in funny money – conjured up with derivative instruments, under the CARES Act – to backstop markets; and yet, none of that $4.0 trillion shows up in America’s national debt numbers.  How accurate is the FED’s balance sheet?  How reliable are the big four accounting firms?  How credible are public & private financial statements?  And on and on. 

 

It's not just the government & politicians, but the moral collapse of the nation comes directly from business elites, who run the country and own the politicians.  So back to the question at hand: How many Americans died of COVID-19?  

 

Answer: Who the hell knows, because the American government's credibility is shot. 

 Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2020

 

It’s that time again: The Neoliberal Darwin Awards

It’s that time again: The Neoliberal Darwin Awards 

 

Lawmakers are charged with the arduous task of rewriting the U.S. antitrust laws — something that hasn’t been done in earnest in decades. The country’s two major antitrust statutes, the Sherman Act (monopoly law) and the Clayton Act (merger law) were passed in 1890 and 1914, respectively. The Federal Trade Commission Act, which established the FTC and gave it powers to regulate competition, was also passed in 1914.

 

Congress just finished its Big Tech antitrust report — now it’s time to rewrite the laws, CNBC

 

JM Hamilton (11-28-2020)

 

Last year, we kicked off the Neoliberal Darwin awards…  acknowledging & identifying companies - and their management & ownership - that were run in a highly egregious manner.  Behavior, corruption, & profit taking so glaringly bad, that these companies are a threat to capitalism, the US economy, and society at large. 

 

In 2020, neoliberalism didn’t fail to provide, yet again, corporate and multinational examples worth writing about.  If anything, the pandemic revealed entire industries, such as private equity, to be completely incompetent and self-serving: not masters of the universe, but rather, vampires.  Volumes could be filled, case studies written, and textbooks created, but for sake of energy and time, let’s focus in on two key industries.  

 

This year’s recipients of the Neoliberal Darwin Awards: Big Tech and American for-profit Healthcare. 

 

Big Tech (often referred to as FAANG stocks) was in the spotlight this year and received long overdue attention from congress…  for destroying competition, monopoly creation, and causing great harm to the US economy.  Studies were conducted, hearings held, and Silicon Valley royalty made less than impressive appearances before congress.  Further complicating matters, America’s captured & owned regulatory authorities are little more than toadies and lackies, all too often run by industry insiders.  Pro-corporate American courts, too, have made a perfidious hash of US antitrust laws, that date back to the early 20^th century.  Aided further by owned academic institutions and think tanks, US antitrust laws – over time - have been limited to ideas surrounding “consumer welfare.” 

 

And since consumers appear to be doing well by these tech leviathans – so the thought process goes – then these monopolies remain, largely, untouchable.  The conventional wisdom further goes that congress will have to rewrite the antitrust laws but given the divided nature of congress and its penchant for obstruction & sabotage – good luck with that.  And even if a law was passed, it would then, more than likely, be beaten down in right-wing courts, over the span of years.  

 

Instead Dem staffers, who compiled the study, argue (per CNBC) that US antitrust laws should – as originally written – not only protect consumers, but “workers, entrepreneurs, independent businesses, open markets, a fair economy and democratic ideals.”

 

Excellent.  Hard to disagree with any of that, and of course, the aforementioned utilities – or FAANGs – have: crushed labor; entrepreneurs; destroyed capitalism - often well beyond their own economic sector; and indeed, harmed the US economy.  Throw Uber & Lyft into the mix -- along w/ the labor, regulatory, & tax arbitrage seen throughout the tech industry -- and the well documented stagnation of wages and wealth -- and it seems like an open and shut case.  That is, this isn’t creative destruction, but instead, wholesale economic genocide. 

 

Except…  lawyers being lawyers, and judges being politicians, they are likely to stick to precedent, which means any arguments & efforts to break up the tech utilities are likely to fall back upon arguments concerning the consumer. 

 

But that may not necessarily be a bad thing.  For whom is the American consumer but US labor?  Unless one is lucky and born into wealth and privilege, and the vast majority of us are not, the only way for one to be a consumer is to earn wages.  And labor has been absolutely crushed, over the last four decades, by M&A, monopoly, and monopsony power… especially by the tech industry.  Therefore, if labor has been crushed, the US consumer has been crushed, as has America’s purchasing power.  This is not conjecture, but rather, well documented fact. 

 

Basically, unless a right-wing judge is entirely corrupt, arguably, they can quickly see the argument's merit. Add in the originalists & textualists on the Supreme Court -- and unless they throw out century old antitrust laws, in part or in whole -- it would appear that the laws, as originally written, are straight forward enough. Especially, if they conclude, that there is no consumer, w/out labor’s ability to earn a wage, first.  (That's Econ 101.) And if labor is harmed by these multinational monstrosities, then the consumer is harmed.  In the US today, forty percent of Americans can’t meet a $400 emergency payment, and the pandemic and tech utilities have surely, driven that number up.  That one in five US children live in poverty is further testament to this fact. 

 

In short, it’s long past time to break up the tech utilities. Not so ironically - given the industry’s donations to the Democratic party - the biggest obstruction to proceeding w/ antitrust enforcement, may not come from republicans, but establishment democrats. After all, it is America, which means: Count on the political duopoly and right-wing judges to side w/ economy crushing billionaires and monopolists.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course, some industries don’t require the elementary - legal - leap from labor harm to consumer harm, in order to enforce antitrust. American healthcare, pre-pandemic, made up nearly twenty percent of US GDP.  During the pandemic – w/ shrinking GDP and higher healthcare usage – the percentage of GDP healthcare monopolies (insurers, Big Pharma, hospitals, pharmacies, private equity, & pharmacy benefit managers) consume…  will, more than likely, grow well beyond twenty percent. 

 

And yet, all of our Western peers and allies have some form of universal care, and portability of care – consistently, at half the per capita price tag.  Not to put too fine a point on it, but imagine going through the physical stress of undergoing Corona-care, w/in the failing American healthcare system, accompanied by the added psychological stress of knowing, you are likely to go bankrupt?   Add in incompetent congressional & executive branch leadership, at the federal & state level, and no wonder the United States leads the world in Corona-deaths. 

 

For regular readers, JM Hamilton spent a good amount of time outlining the horrors of the American healthcare system, over the last year:

 

Did Trump embrace … Socialized Medicine?  

 

In this piece, JMH asks why Trump turned to Canada and Medicare For All, as a solution to America’s Big Pharma problem. 

 

Storm Clouds Over US Healthcare…

 

Here, we eviscerate the “choice argument” that monopolists, w/in the US healthcare industry, often put up.  The reality, there is no choice in American healthcare, except for many to go bankrupt.  JMH also asks: Why is the US government – siding w/ healthcare monopolists – and working against the interests of the US economy & Americans?

 

Another Black Hole in the US Healthcare Model: Workers' Compensation Insurance  

 

In this piece, we point out the fraud & waste, that is the Affordable Care Act, isn’t limited to personal healthcare, but carries over into duplicative, Workers’ Compensation insurance.  (i.e. American healthcare for injured workers)

 

Death Panels

 

Irony of ironies… as the pandemic heats up, America’s failed for-profit healthcare system is rationing care and deciding who lives and who dies.  Conservatives, and shills for the healthcare industry, used to worry about socialized medicine and death panels…now their worst fears are happening w/in American for-profit healthcare. 

 

COBRA

 

How do employers ensure American workers remain compliant, grateful, and docile (w/ zero entrepreneurial ambitions) … by tying healthcare coverage to employment.  COBRA is outrageously priced healthcare insurance, post- employment. 

 

Social Costs & American Healthcare 

 

Here, we visit how billionaires & multinationals have shifted nearly the entire cost of healthcare – and the extraordinary profits of same – onto the backs of America’s disenfranchised:  The American worker & taxpayer.  Hence, Corporate America’s collective willingness to sacrifice labor and open up the economy, in the middle of a pandemic. The oligarchy has absolutely nothing to lose & near zero financial skin in America’s ever escalating healthcare costs.  That's called moral hazard. 

 

Medicare For All 

 

JMH reviews the grim outcome & economic malaise surrounding America’s failed for-profit healthcare system, versus our Northern neighbor and Canada’s highly successful, Medicare For All. 

 

Trump Loves Socialized Medicine 

 

When the chips were down, and the president was suffering with Corona … where did he flee to?   It wasn’t for-profit healthcare, but rather, the finest socialized medicine American taxpayers could buy. 

 

 

Roll these pieces together and we have one hell of an indictment against neoliberalism but also against America’s worthless two-party political system, essentially a duopoly. 

 

A duopoly where Dems & GOP – despite some modest show of bickering – always vote in lockstep against the interests of the American people, and in favor of their donor masters. 

 

US for-profit healthcare, with its ever-growing body count, defines systemic racism, just as much as it fosters and protects raging inequality.  US for-profit healthcare is the paragon of injustice, waste, and fraud.  Via monopolistic taxation, American healthcare kills jobs, opportunity, innovation, and the economy itself. 

 

And there you have it…  the Big Tech and US Healthcare winners.

 

Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2020

 

 

Santa Growth is not coming to town…

Santa Growth is not coming to town… 

 

By JM Hamilton (11-15-2020)

 

We can all rejoice that vaccines appear to be on the way.  Vaccines that Western governments will, likely, overpay Big Pharma for, and will, probably, save countless lives. The plague is certainly nothing to celebrate, but we should pause a moment and tip our collective hat to COVID.  Namely, for all the truths the disease has revealed, about the state of the American economy and the political process.  Without COVID, the United States might have traveled on down the neoliberal path…  never questioning, semi-comatose, somnolent, morbidly obese, sleepwalking, and narcotized on American exceptionalism, consumerism, & social media.

 

Without COVID, would Trump have won a second term?

 

As you chew on that, please note, the pandemic highlights and presents an opportunity to question the false narratives Americans are fed every day.  Among the aforementioned revelations: tax cuts for the rich lead to economic stagnation and catastrophic national debt, just as exorbitant corporate debt crushes companies & industries; the trickledown myth (fiscal & monetary) is just that, a fable that nobody credible believes in anymore; and it doesn’t matter how many tens of thousands of Main Street businesses fail, if you pump enough taxpayer money into debt and stock markets, the markets will completely divorce themselves from reality. 

 

But perhaps the greatest fiction to be laid out for burial, by COVID, is the story that the economic growth fairy - for today’s purposes, Santa Growth - will slide down the nation’s chimney and save the United States, laissez faire economics, and eradicate nearly $30 trillion in national debt. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The financial news media - and the fresh and saltwater schools of economics – are all in agreement, growth is the path forward, in: eliminating inequality, addressing stagnant wages, as a solution for economic malaise, and in addressing catastrophic national debt. 

 

Even before the plague came along, the US had enjoyed economic growth in, nearly, every year, from Reagan forward.  (Albeit, growth – from 2000 forward, arguably - was significantly mitigated by colossal national debt, endless austerity, budget draining wars w/out end, Wall Street bailouts, & rent seeking utilities that have come to dominate the US economy.)  And yet, during the last forty years of economic growth, wages stagnated, the number of millionaires & billionaires soared, the national debt shot to the moon, and social mobility has been all but eliminated.  Most detrimentally, the economy has become financialized… thanks largely, to Federal Reserve policy. 

 

Moreover, the insistence upon growth - as an economic panacea for what ails America, indeed, The West - holds out false hope and doubles down on the failure that led us to a divided and impoverished nation.  Relying on economic growth, to solve the nation’s ills, is little more than an avoidance strategy, relied upon by the privileged … essentially, kicking the can down the road.  Lancing & removing growth dogma that infects America’s economy, academia, and C-suites is the key to moving beyond late-stage neoliberalism and adopting an economy that works for everyone. 

 

For in the ultimate twist of economic fate, it is Wall Street’s & Corporate C-Suites’ myopic view of growth – quarter to quarter – that leads to greatly diminished aggregate growth for the nation.  Specifically, what happens when an industry doesn’t see growth?  Well, the elites would have us believe that’s cause for industry consolidation.  And while M&A may take care of management and ownership concerns, in the short run… when this behavior is engaged in across the entire economy, the ultimate outcome is clearly antigrowth & anti-jobs. (Not unlike multinationals exporting jobs offshore, in favor of cheaper labor, and then dumping foreign manufactured goods on US soil… a single company can get away with it, but when everybody does it, aggregate demand and the economy takes a hit.). 

 

To be clear, M&A, monopoly & monopsony, leads to layoffs, lost jobs, stagnating wages, a significant loss of innovation & opportunity (and diseconomies of scale) … in short, significantly less growth.  Moreover, cartel & monopolies extract taxes or rents from the consumer, that a normally functioning mixed economy – or rational government - would never permit. 

 

This too, crushes growth and opportunity. 

 

The FED enables all this by suppressing interest rates, keeping investors desperate, and making money - for the connected & powerful - nearly free to borrow. All this feeds consolidation, M&A, and paradoxically, an anti-growth outcome (aka a doom loop).  Hence, reinforcing the obvious… that those who sing loudest w/in the cult of growth – the business community, academics, & the neoliberal elites w/in government – are often the very same people, who destroy growth, opportunity, jobs and the economy.  Meanwhile, the national debt soars, commercial debt soars, and entire segments of the economy – see American retail – are all but eliminated. Let’s hear it for GDP, one more time.  No thanks.  

 

Moreover, if possible, is unlimited growth even desirable?  

 

Think about what the cult of growth requires: an ever-growing population, increasingly impoverished by failed neoliberal dogma & the lack of well-paying jobs; an overburdened planet, which – given plague, famine, disease, endless war, and climate change – appears to have reached its limits with humanity; and finally, a captured & subservient US government, perfectly willing to sacrifice half the population, in favor of a handful of oligarchs. In short, unrestrained growth is not only unachievable, but it is also undesirable.

 

So you better not pout, you better not cry… Santa Growth is not coming to town, to save us from our failure to ask hard questions, like why has neoliberalism – and the cult of growth - been such a catastrophic failure for nearly half of all Americans?

 

That alone, should cause Americans to withdraw the cookies, milk, and kick our Santa Growth habit, once and for all.  

 

Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2020

 

 

 

Mr. Trump’s failed covenant light economy…

Mr. Trump’s failed covenant light economy… 

 

 

Workers across America have taken a powerful hit. As of this month, more than 23 million are receiving unemployment, even as Trump celebrates a “recovery.” As of August, some 12 million had lost employer-based health-care coverage when they lost their jobs. As of Aug. 31, some 98,000 businesses — primarily small businesses — had closed permanently, according to one survey. One in 6 renters are behind on their payments. Moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures delay what will be a flood of expulsions.

 

-        U.S. workers have taken a powerful hit. Any true recovery must include them – Washington Post 

 

 

By JM Hamilton (10-31-2020)

 

 

An article caught my attention in the FT this week with ramifications for the debt market and our highly leveraged US economy, A disturbing new signal from the CDS market.  At issue, CDS (credit default swaps) are insurance contracts that provide coverage for bonds, in the event of default. Like property insurance itself (which covers the difference between the value of the property and any undamaged property, in the event of loss), the CDS covers the differential between the face value of the bond and any recovery value from the bankrupt enterprise. 

 

What we are coming to find out is the recovery value is increasingly less and less, because private equity firms & management -- thanks to a tidal wave of liquidity provided by central banks, and thanks to interest rate suppression provided by central banks – are finding cheap loans in the marketplace for highly distressed businesses (often referred to as zombies).  This last tier of lender is sweeping up assets (that the PE firm or management teams haven’t already pilfered) and leaving bondholders and the enterprises providing CDS out in the cold; that is to say, with little or no recovery value from the bankrupt enterprise. 

 

But the crux of the story is this:  The CDS issuers and bondholders have only themselves to blame, because they are issuing covenant light insurance products (CDS) and covenant light debt.  That is to say, there’s no - or very little - caveats, conditions, or stipulations w/in the bonds, or CDS contracts, that state management can’t steal the collateral (the assets of the enterprise) or run out and offer the assets/collateral to yet another tier of lender.  None.  Of course, all this goes back to our hyper-leveraged economy and the financialization of same…. Where too much money (see comments above on central banks & monetary policy) is chasing too few investment opportunities. It’s also a testament to the ongoing wave of consolidation, M&A, and the monopolization of the global economy… which means fewer businesses and investment opportunities.  (And let’s not forget to stick it to both the bond & CDS underwriters for a complete lack of discipline.) 

 

Again, all fueled by your friendly neighborhood central banker. 

 

Financial instruments, however, aren’t the only areas where we see covenant light practices… and no strings attached giveaways to the business community.   The New York Times ran an interesting piece this week, entitled:  Trump’s Manufacturing Promises Disappoint as Economy Sours.  

 

For me, two key points in the article stand out.  One, after Foxconn failed to build the factory it promised in Wisconsin… it now appears that Foxconn will be denied tax credits, but the State of Wisconsin is still out the hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars it sunk into the project.  Meanwhile, it appears that Foxconn will not use the facility for its intended purpose, nor invest capital - or hire – at anywhere near the levels agreed upon.  The much-celebrated Foxconn project – by Trump and former Wisconsin Governor, Scott Walker - was a boondoggle from the beginning… w/ Republicans making commitments w/ taxpayer money that would never be offset with equal or greater tax revenue, even under the rosiest of hiring scenarios. 

 

And two, this same article pointed out that the Trump tax cuts were delivered with the idea that America’s business royalty would repatriate jobs and factories back home to America.  But there was no contractual obligation, no covenants in the legislation concerning the tax cuts.  So surprise, surprise… businesses receive a massive tax giveaway, the deficit and the national debt continue to spiral out of control, under POTUS Trump, and the US economy and labor continue to suffer.  Talk about your trillion-dollar looting; talk about failed trickle-down. 

 

Of course, Republicans always claim to be the party of business, and the CEO -in- Chief is no exception.  So why is Trump’s administration mired in failure, particularly in regards bringing home the bacon to America: jobs and opportunity?  Again, much of it goes back to fecklessness in placing caveats, covenants, and taxpayer protections into government deals/laws/legislation with the business community.  And not unlike the covenant light bond and CDS contracts and agreements, Federal and State governments fail – again & again – to protect the United States, American labor, and our economy. 

 

Establishment Dems are equally complicit. 

 

See the gross corruption surrounding the looting and sacking of the PPP program, as well as, the tax giveaways, by and for the connected & the powerful, under the CARES Act ...  allegedly, designed for small and medium sized businesses and workers in distress.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is it just me or is it truly time to turn the tables?  Is it time for elected officials to actually stand up for Americans and the economy… and place serious teeth into agreements/legislation, with real substantive monetary penalties and repercussions for businesses & ownership that fail to deliver on their end of the bargain?  Detractors and naysayers may ask, how can you hold businesses accountable in a globalized world, where M&A and consolidation leave fewer and fewer businesses and jobs?  Where corporations have the power of nation states?  

 

That response, itself, speaks directly to neoliberalism’s failure.

 

But – until the real structural defects of failed neoliberalism are addressed - the correct response is easy enough for any political leadership that actually wants to lead.  To wit, if businesses want access to the world’s biggest economy (what remains of it), then they need to play by America’s rules.  The least of America’s rules should be: what is sold in America is manufactured & serviced in America, from the ground up; a living wage is required for all American labor, starting at $15 an hour; eliminate the gig-economy; and companies will be required to pay at tax rates no less than the highest income tax bracket, based upon EBITDA. 

 

As for those remaining businesses that have not been destroyed by too much leverage, from financial engineering and private equity robber barons, there should be very serious caps placed on the amount of debt that can be piled onto balance sheets.  And if companies & multinationals don’t want to play by the rules, caveats, conditions, and covenants… they no longer get to play in the American economy. 

 

Good luck in totalitarian China. 

 

Copyright JM Hamilton Publishing 2020